Solana bounced off $190 and gained almost 12% in three days, rising to $213. For many market participants, this was a signal: the recent decline is seen as an opportunity to enter at a discount. On the horizon is a key event: on October 10, the SEC is expected to make a final decision on a Solana-based ETF.
Retail players bought up the entire dip
Solana (SOL) chart on 1h timeframe
Binance data shows: at the time of the dip, it was retail traders (trades from 100 to 1,000 SOL) who were actively increasing their positions. A similar trend is seen on Coinbase, where institutional orders also shifted towards buying.
The Hyblock index “True Retail Longs vs Shorts” recorded an increase in the share of retail accounts in longs from 54% to 78% at the peak of the sell-off. This confirms that mass players were the driver of the rebound.
Spot order book analysis shows a bias towards buyers: the “Bid-Ask ratio” metric rose to 0.47. According to CVD data, in one four-hour session, retail buyers accumulated more than $72 million in volume.
Target — September highs
Open interest and trading volume of Solana futures on CME.
To return to the yearly highs around $253, traders need to monitor open interest. On September 18, when SOL reached its highs, total OI was $3.65 billion, and on CME — $2.12 billion with trading volumes of $1.57 billion. Now these figures are noticeably lower: OI is at $1.72 billion, and CME volumes are at $400 million.
Total open interest for SOL/USDT pair
Growth of these metrics will be an additional confirmation of the market’s readiness for new growth.
Total SOL yield by regional trading sessions.
Session yields also remain an important indicator: since Friday, they have been consistently positive during the US trading session, where the ETF decision is expected. If a similar dynamic appears during Asian and European hours, it will strengthen the bulls’ positions.
What’s next?
The market’s focus is shifting to October 10. Successful approval of the ETF by the SEC could be the catalyst for a new surge and return Solana to the $250 level. While retail players are actively increasing positions, institutional metrics have not yet caught up with the September highs, leaving room for further growth.
Read more: How a US government shutdown could affect Bitcoin
