Bitcoin is stuck in a narrowing range — market momentum is weakening and shifting towards a neutral-bearish sentiment.
This is written by analyst Axel Adler in a recent CryptoQuant review. According to him, demand is weakening, and the attempt to consolidate above $115,000 failed.
Market uncertainty is increasing as September comes to an end — a month historically considered unfavorable for bitcoin.
Bitcoin price and trading volumes on exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
Analysts are watching support and resistance levels
Last week, bitcoin traded within $108,600–$115,400, but by the end of the period got stuck in a narrow corridor of $108,800–109,800. Each new attempt to rise was met with selling, and sellers gradually lowered the level at which they take profits.
Now, according to CryptoQuant, the nearest resistance is at $111,000–112,000. If buyers can push the price above this zone, a retest of $114,000–115,400 is possible. But if the $108,600 level does not hold, the market may accelerate its decline down to $105,000 — this is where analysts see stronger support.
“The structure of lower highs has not yet been broken,” notes Axel Adler.
He believes that holding above $108,600 is critically important to maintain a neutral scenario. If the price falls below and does not recover quickly, the correction may intensify.
Bitcoin momentum is decreasing. Source: CryptoQuant
Momentum goes negative
The 30-day momentum index from CryptoQuant ended the week at around –2%. At the beginning of the period, it was in the positive — at +1%. Thus, in a few days, the indicator fell by three percentage points.
During the week, values fluctuated from –6% to +1%, and only in two out of seven sessions was the index above zero. This is not enough to speak of a stable trend strength.
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The breakout of the $114,000–115,000 level occurred at a time of weakening momentum, which only increased pressure on the price. There is clearly less buying interest in the market, and activity has shifted towards profit-taking and exiting positions.
“To reverse, the price needs to return above $112,000 and keep momentum positive for at least a few days,” Adler wrote.
Without this, the base scenario remains neutral-bearish with the risk of a retest of $108,600 or lower.
What matters in the coming days
The latest bitcoin dynamics show a market without a clear direction. It is not growing, but it is not collapsing either. Momentum remains closer to neutral-bearish, and further movement will depend on the activity of buyers and sellers.
If the current level holds and demand metrics start to recover, a new attempt at growth is possible. Otherwise, bitcoin may enter a prolonged consolidation or deepen its correction.
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In his weekly forecast, analyst Axel Adler noted that the market remains in a neutral phase, and most participants should just observe.
