Ethereum has returned above $4,000 and already climbed to $4,200 at the start of the week. The market is discussing the likelihood of a new rally in October, and the bulls have several strong arguments. Among them are the lowest exchange reserves in years, a surge in DEX trading volumes, and historically positive seasonality.
Minimal ETH reserves on exchanges
The amount of Ethereum on centralized platforms has dropped to 2016 levels. This indicates accumulation: investors are moving assets to wallets, staking, and contracts.
Analysts note that a similar situation was observed at the end of 2022, before the start of the bull cycle. The decline in reserves creates conditions for a price jump: with rising demand, limited supply amplifies upward movement.
DEX trading volumes grew by almost 50%
On-chain data also shows increased activity. Over the week, trading volume on decentralized exchanges rose by 47% to $33.9 billion from $22.9 billion the previous week.
The largest growth was seen on Uniswap (+26%) and Maverick Protocol (+30%). Volumes also grew on L2 networks like Base, Arbitrum, and Polygon, but to a lesser extent. Historically, spikes on DEXs are accompanied by ETH growth, as demand for liquidity directly increases token usage.
October is traditionally bullish
Seasonality is on Ethereum’s side. According to CoinGlass, on average, October has brought the asset 4.77% growth. If the trend continues, the price could approach $4,300.
September, on the contrary, was weak — ETH fell by 6%, which matches the typical “bearish” pattern of the month. However, historically, in October the market turned towards growth, paving the way for a strong fourth quarter.
What’s next?
Analysts Marzell and Midas expect acceleration in the coming weeks. Marzell called October an “ignition point” for Q4, and Midas compared the current trend to the end of 2020, when Ethereum doubled in one quarter. If the trends repeat, ETH could enter the last quarter of the year with a strong bullish base.
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