The 21Shares crypto market forecast turned out to be noticeably more optimistic than reality: the investment company admitted in its State of the Market report that a number of expectations for digital assets in 2026 did not materialize.
What 21Shares Does
21Shares is an investment company that works with digital assets and exchange-traded crypto products. Its main areas include cryptocurrency ETPs, spot exchange-traded products, and bitcoin ETFs, which allow investors to access the crypto market without directly buying coins.
21Shares expected the market to enter the final phase of bitcoin’s usual four-year cycle. This model is based on past dynamics: after the halving, when the reward for miners is cut in half, the price of bitcoin usually peaks and then falls sharply to a local bottom.
This time, the scenario was milder than in previous bear periods. The key numbers for the current cycle look like this:
- Period: after the all-time high in October 2025; maximum price: $126,198; post-drop price: about $60,000; drop: 52%.
Bitcoin’s Drop Was Weaker Than Previous Crashes
21Shares noted that a drop of about 50% looks moderate compared to previous cycles:
- Current cycle: drop of about 50%; support factor: capital inflows from large investors into spot exchange-traded bitcoin funds.
- Previous cycles: drop of more than 80%.
Essentially, the share of bitcoin in the portfolios of large traditional companies is growing, helping the market avoid a deeper fall. But even here, expectations did not match actual dynamics: inflows into bitcoin ETFs in 2026 were below the projected $400 billion.
The forecast for the spot crypto exchange-traded products market also did not come true:
- At the start of the year, 21Shares expected $250 billion in assets in such instruments.
- By the end of 2025, the actual figure was about $172 billion.
- By May, the total assets under management in global crypto ETPs had dropped to about $140 billion.
Since the start of the year, this segment has declined by about 15%. At the same time, according to 21Shares, bitcoin ETPs accounted for about $110 billion.
Stablecoins Did Not Reach $1 Trillion Market Cap
Another scenario that did not come true concerned stablecoins. 21Shares assumed that by the end of the year, their total market capitalization would grow to $1 trillion thanks to greater regulatory clarity for cryptocurrencies.
There were several reasons for such expectations:
- In July 2025, the US adopted the GENIUS Act, which sets rules for stablecoin issuance.
- By that time, the MiCA regulation, governing the digital asset market, was already in effect in the European Union.
The actual picture for stablecoins is much more modest than the 21Shares forecast:
- 21Shares forecast for total stablecoin market cap: $1 trillion.
- Actual total supply: about $320 billion.
- Regulatory requirements are met by 14 licensed issuers and about 20 stablecoins.
DeFi Is Held Back by Hacks and Loss of Trust
The forecast for decentralized finance also did not come true:
- 21Shares forecast for 2026: total value locked in the DeFi market above $300 billion.
- Actual figure now: about $140 billion.
Analysts attribute the gap between expectations and reality to several factors:
- The number of hacker attacks has increased.
- Since the start of the year, 50 incidents of funds being stolen from DeFi projects have been recorded.
- Total losses exceeded $840 million.
- The amount stolen was 70% higher than in the same period last year.
Notable attacks in 2026 include:
- The hack of Kelp, one of the largest liquid restaking protocols in the EigenLayer ecosystem: in April, attackers withdrew $293 million from the project.
Developers linked this attack to TraderTraitor, a division of the North Korean hacker group Lazarus. Against the backdrop of such incidents, decentralized financial services face not only direct losses but also pressure on investor trust.
What Factors Drive the Crypto Market
The rise or fall of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies depends not on a single date but on a combination of factors: supply and demand, halving, inflows or outflows of money through ETFs and ETPs, regulation, macroeconomics, Fed policy, news, technological changes, and the level of trust after hacks.
21Shares’ expectations for 2025 centered on three themes: bitcoin’s post-halving cycle, growth of spot crypto ETPs, and increased stablecoin regulation after GENIUS and MiCA.
ETFs directly affect the supply and demand balance: when money flows into funds, managers need to buy or hold the underlying asset; when investors exit funds, the pressure on price can increase.
Macroeconomics and the Fed affect risk appetite: high rates and tight policy usually reduce interest in volatile assets, while expectations of easing can support demand.
Why Crypto Forecasts Often Do Not Work
Crypto forecasts should be seen as scenarios, not as price promises: the market changes quickly due to volatility, regulation, capital flows, and technological risks.
Price forecasts use technical analysis, fundamental analysis, on-chain metrics, ETF and ETP flow assessment, scenario modeling, and machine learning models. But these methods show probable scenarios, not exact dates for rises or falls.
Looking out to 2050, such estimates become even more conditional: the long-term price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will depend on mass demand, regulation, infrastructure development, and competition among projects.
The main risks for investors are sharp volatility, falling liquidity, regulatory changes, hacker attacks, smart contract errors, and loss of trust. For 21Shares products, there are additional risks of the exchange-traded instruments themselves: the price of ETPs or ETFs depends on the underlying crypto assets, institutional investor demand, fees, liquidity, and market infrastructure.
For 21Shares, the middle of the year became a moment to revise expectations: the cryptocurrency market continues to develop, but the growth rates of bitcoin, stablecoins, and DeFi turned out to be noticeably lower than previous estimates.
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