Experts are increasingly talking about a possible crypto bull run in the first quarter of 2026. In their opinion, the market could receive a powerful boost due to the coincidence of several macroeconomic factors at once.
Analysts believe that if these catalysts materialize, Bitcoin could rise in the range of $300,000 to $600,000. This scenario looks aggressive, but more and more market participants are starting to take it seriously.
Five key trends are coming together in what analysts call a perfect storm for digital assets.
The Fed’s balance sheet pause removes pressure from the market
The Fed’s quantitative tightening, which drained liquidity from the markets throughout 2025, has recently ended.
Even a simple stop to the outflow of liquidity is historically considered a bullish signal for risk assets. Data from past cycles show that Bitcoin can rise up to 40% at times when central banks stop reducing their balance sheets.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that it is the beginning of 2026 that could be the period when markets fully feel the effect of the end of QT by the Fed.
Rate cuts may continue
The Fed recently cut interest rates, and comments from the regulator and forecasts from Goldman Sachs indicate that the easing cycle may continue in 2026. In this scenario, rates could fall to 3–3.25%.
Lower rates usually mean increased liquidity and strengthen investor interest in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. It is during such periods that the market most often starts looking for higher yields, and digital assets come into the spotlight.
More short-term liquidity is entering the market
The Fed has started to act to ease tension in short-term funding. This refers to purchases of Treasury bills, which help keep short-term rates within the desired range and prevent the market from “overheating” due to a lack of liquidity.
The regulator has already made it clear that it will begin technical purchases of T-bills precisely to manage liquidity. Jerome Powell specifically emphasized that these measures do not mean a shift to a loose monetary policy:
“Purchases are made solely to maintain a sufficient level of reserves in the system and effective control of the interest rate. These measures do not reflect a change in the course of monetary policy.”
Such interventions are nothing new for the Fed. When imbalances arise in the system, this quickly manifests in the overnight repo market, where banks borrow cash against government bonds. At such times, the regulator usually enters the market to smooth out the imbalance.
Recently, several indicators at once point to increased short-term liquidity pressure:
- Money market funds are holding elevated levels of cash.
- Treasury bill issuance is declining after changes in the US Treasury’s borrowing structure.
- Seasonal demand for liquidity continues to rise.
The Fed has started buying Treasury bills so that short-term rates do not stray far from the target level for the Federal Funds Rate. These are the shortest government securities, usually with maturities from a couple of weeks to a year.
This is not the same as classic QE. But the effect is similar: there is more money “here and now” on the market, and this almost always helps crypto.
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If such actions continue in the first quarter of 2026, the backdrop for risk assets, including crypto and stocks, will improve. The Fed is essentially stopping tightening and starting to support liquidity.
The authorities are interested in stable markets
Right now, US authorities are looking at markets through the lens of elections. The midterm elections will be held in November 2026, and in such a situation, sharp moves that could shake the stock market are not needed by anyone.
Instead, the focus is on stability. The calmer the markets behave, the fewer risks for the current administration. This reduces the likelihood of unexpected regulatory shocks and makes risk assets more attractive.
Macro researcher Torsten Fröhlich speaks about this directly:
“If the US stock market starts to fall before the midterm elections, the responsibility for this will fall on the current administration. That’s why they will do everything possible to support the growth of stocks and the crypto market.”
The labor market paradox
When the labor market starts to cool, the Fed usually reacts quite predictably. Slowing hiring or moderate layoffs quickly change the regulator’s tone and force it to act more softly.
For the crypto market, this is an important point. The weaker the labor market looks, the greater the pressure on the Fed to ease policy. And this almost always means more liquidity in the system and more comfortable conditions for the growth of digital assets.
Expert opinion points to strengthening bullish sentiment
Now more and more assessments are converging on one scenario. The macroeconomic background is gradually improving, and market participants are starting to notice it. In the industry, there is increasing talk that the crypto market could return to growth as early as the beginning of 2026.
Head of research at CoinMarketCap Alice Liu expects a recovery in February and March, linking this to a combination of positive macro indicators.
“We will see a return to growth in the first quarter of 2026. February and March will again be bullish months, based on the aggregate of macro indicators,” Binance quotes Alice Liu as saying.
There are also bolder forecasts. Crypto commentator Vibes believes that in the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin could go into the range of $300,000–$600,000. Such estimates reflect extremely bullish expectations amid improving liquidity and easing macro conditions.
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At the same time, the market now looks quite calm. Open interest in Bitcoin has decreased, which indicates traders’ caution and a lack of hype.
But this is exactly what creates the ground for a sharp move. If macro factors really work, prolonged consolidation could end very quickly. In this case, the crypto market could well start 2026 with a move that will later be remembered as one of the key reversals of the cycle.
