The total crypto market capitalization has dropped by more than 36% over the year. Altcoins are trading about 45% below the October 2025 peak, and bitcoin is heading for its worst start to the year in more than a decade. Meanwhile, some capital is flowing into AI company stocks and major IPOs.
Traders have been waiting for a full-fledged altcoin season for three years, but it still hasn’t started. During this time, market narratives burned out quickly, token unlocks pressured prices, memecoins mainly profited those who got in earlier, and most rallies ended too quickly.
Against this backdrop, investors are increasingly looking not at the tokens themselves, but at companies that profit from the crypto market.
On June 25, ARK funds bought shares of four companies related to the crypto industry for about $5.4 million. All these stocks declined that day. About $1.28 million went to Coinbase, $637,455 to Circle, $199,895 to Bullish and $3.27 million to Robinhood. Cathie Wood bought on the dip in companies whose businesses directly depend on crypto market activity.
ARK bought shares of crypto companies, making its biggest bet on Robinhood.
Such stocks give investors access to the crypto cycle through trading volumes, stablecoins, custodial services, derivatives, and retail trader activity. In a sluggish market that has lasted for several years, this increasingly looks like a separate bet rather than just a substitute for buying tokens.
What These Companies Are
Coinbase reported in the first quarter that it holds 8.6% of the crypto trading market. Derivatives trading volume over the past 12 months grew by 169% year over year, and the company holds about 12% of all crypto assets in the world. Also, more than 25% of all USDC in circulation is placed in Coinbase products.
These figures clearly show what Coinbase earns from when the market revives, and why its business quickly feels the downturn when trading volumes fall.
In the first quarter, Coinbase transaction revenue fell by about 40% to $756 million. Total revenue dropped from $2.03 billion to $1.43 billion, and the company ended its second consecutive quarter with a loss.
Circle has a different model. The volume of USDC in circulation in the first quarter reached $77 billion, which is 28% more than a year earlier. On-chain USDC transaction volume grew by 263% to $21.5 trillion.
See also: Cryptocurrency Digest: US Inflation Pressures the Market, and the European Union Tightens Rules
Total revenue and reserve income amounted to $694 million, up 20% year over year. Growth was driven by a higher average USDC volume in circulation, although part of the effect was offset by lower reserve yields. As of June 25, there were about $73.6 billion USDC in circulation.
Circle’s business depends on the volume of USDC, reserve yields, and stablecoin distribution conditions. Hype around individual altcoins plays almost no role.
If reserve yields change by 100 basis points with $77 billion in circulation, this gives about $770 million annual effect before expenses. Therefore, Circle looks like a bet on stablecoins, interest rates, and dollar liquidity at the same time. The main risks here are related to regulation and changes in rates.
Robinhood received $134 million in crypto revenue in the first quarter, which is 47% less than a year earlier. Crypto trading volume in the app fell by 48%. Another $42 billion was added by Bitstamp, and the total nominal transaction volume reached $66 billion.
Bullish rounds out this group from the institutional side. In the first quarter, the company reported digital asset sales of $51.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $35.1 million, and a 14% share of the open interest market for BTC options in April.
| Company | Connection to the Crypto Market | What Needs to Recover | Main Risk |
| Coinbase | Exchange fees, custodial services, derivatives, USDC ecosystem | Growth in trading volumes, activity of institutional and retail investors | Revenue quickly falls when trading volumes decline |
| Circle | USDC volume in circulation, reserve income, payment infrastructure | Growth in stablecoin popularity, favorable interest rates, clear regulation | Lower rates or higher USDC distribution costs worsen business economics |
| Robinhood | Retail crypto broker, speculative trading via app, Bitstamp volumes | Return of retail investor interest and growth in crypto market trading volumes | Retail trader activity can quickly disappear in a sluggish market |
| Bullish | Institutional exchange infrastructure, digital asset sales, BTC options | Growth in demand from institutional investors and activity in the derivatives market | Institutional trading volumes shrink when sentiment in the crypto market worsens |
What Happens Next
In a positive scenario, retail interest returns to the market, derivatives revive, and stablecoin supply continues to grow.
In this situation, crypto company stocks may move earlier than a noticeable rotation into altcoins begins. Revenue and profit forecasts are recalculated faster than the market can agree on which token or sector is back in fashion.
For example, if Coinbase adds 10% to its quarterly transaction revenue of $756 million, that gives about $76 million extra per quarter. With a 25% increase, the amount would be about $189 million.
Companies that collect fees from market activity may start improving results even before investors choose the next L1, L2 or sector token.
But there is also a reverse scenario. Capital will keep flowing into AI, IPOs and regular stocks, crypto volumes will remain thin, and the market will again jump from one short story to another.
See also: AAVE Price Rose 11.53% in a Day: Token Strengthened Its Position in the Popularity Ranking
When activity falls, public crypto companies see it immediately in their reports. The latest results from Coinbase and Robinhood have already shown how quickly a weak market hits revenue.
Circle depends on whether the high USDC volume in circulation is maintained and whether reserve yields remain attractive enough. Bullish depends on institutional demand, which can also fall if crypto sentiment worsens.
If the crypto winter drags on, all these companies will operate below their potential. They will still remain part of the crypto market, but will earn much less than they could in a strong cycle.
The old bet on a crypto market recovery looked simpler only in words. You had to guess the token in advance, get in before the crowd, take the risk of low liquidity, watch for unlocks, and hope the narrative didn’t burn out in a couple of weeks.
With stocks, it’s different. The potential X of an individual token here is replaced by a more understandable bet on crypto activity itself.
The main question now is whether the next cycle will look like the broad altseason of 2021 or the market will become narrower, faster, and harder for those trying to profit specifically from tokens.
Judging by recent purchases, Cathie Wood has already chosen a side. She is betting not on individual tokens, but on shares of companies that profit when the crypto market comes back to life.
