The classic “altcoin seasons,” when growth swept across almost the entire market, may no longer occur. This opinion was expressed by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.
According to him, the market structure has changed, and future cycles will look different. Instead of broad growth among most tokens, investors will likely begin to choose only those projects that have real products, users, and a sustainable business model.
The Market May Become More Selective
Hougan believes that the previous model, in which capital sequentially flowed from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then to the wider altcoin market, is gradually losing relevance.
Previously, such cycles often led to a situation where almost any token would rise at the same time. Even projects without strong technology or a business model could show sharp price spikes.
According to the Bitwise investment chief, such a scenario is unlikely to repeat in its previous form. He expects a more selective market, where growth will be concentrated around projects with real use cases and economic value.
Focus on Projects With Real Use Cases
Hougan noted that in the future, investors will pay more attention to fundamental factors. These could be blockchain projects that are already being used by companies, integrated into financial infrastructure, or serving real business processes.
According to him, the market will begin to evaluate such assets differently. Tokens tied to large ecosystems or services with a significant number of users may achieve higher capitalization. At the same time, speculative projects without a sustainable model will likely attract less capital.
The Role of Bitcoin in the Cycle Remains Key
Despite changes in market structure, Bitcoin still plays a central role in cryptocurrency cycles.
Historically, the market has developed according to a fairly recognizable scenario. First, growth would begin with Bitcoin, then capital would move to Ethereum, after which interest in altcoins would intensify. This sequence has been observed in several previous cycles.
According to Hougan, the current market situation may indicate the formation of a new stage of growth. After falling to around $60,000 in February, Bitcoin is gradually stabilizing and showing signs of recovery. At the time of publication, its price is holding at around $70,000.
Debate Over a New Altcoin Season
The crypto industry continues to debate whether a new altcoin season will begin. Some analysts believe it could start in the coming months.
In particular, attention is often paid to Bitcoin dominance—the share of BTC in the total market capitalization. A decline in this indicator is traditionally considered a signal for altcoin growth. However, other market participants take a more flexible approach.
For example, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes previously said that “the altcoin season is always happening somewhere.” According to him, individual tokens are always rising, but investors do not always hold the assets that show the best results.
Interest in Altcoins at a Minimum
At the same time, some indicators show a decline in interest in altcoins. According to analytics platform Santiment, mentions of altcoins on social media have dropped to their lowest level in about two years. This may indicate that investors’ attention is currently focused primarily on Bitcoin.
Historically, such periods have sometimes become a turning point. When interest in altcoins drops to a minimum, the market may gradually begin to look for new projects with growth potential.
What Could Change the Next Cycle
As the industry matures, the crypto market is gradually becoming more like traditional financial markets. Investors are increasingly paying attention not only to technology but also to real project metrics—users, revenue, partnerships, and integrations.
If this trend continues, future cycles really could differ from previous ones. Instead of mass rallies among hundreds of tokens, the market may see narrower and more targeted rallies around strong projects. That is why some analysts believe the next market phase will be just as active, but much more selective.
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