The cryptocurrency market is ending another week under selling pressure, but analysts are increasingly talking about the likelihood of an ‘unexpected November reversal.’ Investor sentiment is hitting new lows, which historically often precedes strong rebounds.
Santiment data confirms: discussions about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and especially XRP are sinking into extreme pessimism, and the Fear and Greed Index is dropping to levels the market hasn’t seen since February.
Against this backdrop, some experts believe that weak holders are capitulating, while long-term investors continue to accumulate. Major managers are also strengthening their confidence in the long term: Bitwise expects a powerful market surge in 2026 due to institutional inflows, stablecoins, and tokenization.
Analysts Record Conditions for a Possible Breakout
Despite fear among retail players, on-chain data analysis shows signs of preparation for a reversal. Santiment notes that the tone of discussions about major cryptocurrencies on social media has shifted towards strong negativity, and such a phase most often coincides with points of seller exhaustion.
Bitcoin is being discussed about equally — bulls and bears are present in equal measure. For Ethereum, the share of positive comments only slightly exceeds the negative ones.
XRP has the worst background: less than half of the discussions are optimistic, and Santiment calls the current moment one of the ‘scariest episodes of 2025’ for this asset. Such an imbalance often indicates that weak hands are leaving, and long-term players are taking their place.
Fear Intensifies, But the Market Has Been Here Before
The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 15 out of 100 — into the ‘extreme fear’ zone. The decline in the index is due not only to price dynamics but also to macroeconomic factors, including current budget risks in the US and capital flows into safe-haven assets.
Horizon economist compared the situation to the end of 2022, when Bitcoin was trading around $18,000. Back then, panic paved the way for further growth. Santiment emphasizes: when retail sells in a falling market, large holders ‘pick up the freed coins and then drive the price up.’
Who Is Selling Now, and Who Is Buying
According to one well-known Bitcoin supporter, the main pressure comes from investors who entered the market in the last 12–18 months. Many of them are taking profits or closing losing positions amid negative news.
At the same time, long-term holders continue to accumulate. According to the analyst, these are participants buying Bitcoin not because of hype, but because they understand the asset’s fundamental properties. The transfer of coins from speculators to confident investors usually forms the base for the next growth cycle.
Why 2026 May Be Decisive
At the same time, Bitwise’s chief investment officer stated that his confidence in crypto growth in 2026 has reached a maximum. He explains this by the cyclical nature of the market: the absence of a strong rally at the end of 2025 reduces the risk of premature overheating.
At a conference in New York, he noted that fundamental themes — the use of stablecoins, institutional investments, asset tokenization, and growing interest in decentralized projects — are laying the foundation for the coming year.
‘Fundamental factors are too strong for the market to remain under pressure for too long,’ he noted, emphasizing the role of inflows into spot ETFs.
The Gap Between Retail and Traditional Investors
According to him, part of the retail participants in the ‘crypto-native’ segment are still depressed by the consequences of past events: the FTX collapse, meme token failures, and major liquidations in October. Many of them are not participating in the current cycle.
In contrast, interest from traditional investors is growing. Inflows into spot ETFs continue, and managers note capital coming in from audiences who previously avoided digital assets.
‘Traditional retail is coming into cryptocurrencies. This part of the audience feels confident,’ analysts note.
What’s Next?
If the current phase of fear is indeed nearing exhaustion, the market could see a sharp reversal in November. Crypto history shows that periods of extreme negativity often coincide with trend recovery points.
At the same time, the big cycle still focuses attention on 2026 — a time that many institutional experts call the most promising for a new strengthening of digital assets.
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