Hyperliquid is preparing to enter the prediction market. According to BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom head Arthur Hayes, the project’s main advantage will not only be low fees, but also the HYPE token, which gives users an economic connection to the platform’s growth.
The idea is simple. On Polymarket and Kalshi, users trade event outcomes but do not receive direct benefits from the growth of the platform itself. Hyperliquid can offer a different model, where activity within the prediction market is linked to the value of HYPE.
HIP-4 Will Add Event Trading to Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid is preparing to launch prediction markets through the HIP-4 proposal. This mechanism should add event outcome trading to the platform, expanding it beyond futures and spot instruments.
According to CoinDesk, the model provides for zero commission on opening a trade. This makes the product competitive from day one, especially for active traders who are sensitive to the cost of entering and exiting positions.
However, Hayes believes that fees are not the main factor. In his opinion, the key difference of Hyperliquid lies in the structure of the platform’s economy.
HYPE Gives Users a Stake in the Platform’s Growth
Hayes claims that HYPE holders will be able to benefit from activity on HIP-4. This sets Hyperliquid apart from competitors, where users trade events but do not participate in the growth of the platform’s value.
This is an important difference for the market. If traders use the product and simultaneously own the platform’s token, their interests partially align with the development of the ecosystem. The higher the turnover and activity, the stronger the potential interest in HYPE.
This approach is closer to a model where users become not only clients but also participants in the project’s economy. In the crypto industry, this is a familiar logic, but in the prediction markets segment, it has not yet become standard.
Polymarket Is Preparing Its Own Token
Polymarket, according to market data, is also moving toward tokenization. The expected token is unofficially called POLY, and preliminary contracts on Gate are trading around $14.
This price implies a fully diluted valuation of about $14 billion. By comparison, HYPE is valued at about $38 billion by the same metric, according to CoinGecko data.
These figures require caution. Pre-listing markets are often illiquid, and prices there may reflect speculative interest rather than sustainable demand after the token launches.
The Difference Between Platforms Is Becoming Structural
Comparing Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Kalshi shows three different models. Hyperliquid already has a token tied to platform activity. Polymarket, judging by market expectations, may come to a similar scheme later.
Kalshi is in a different category. It is a regulated exchange in the US, operating through licenses and oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Such a structure almost excludes a model in which users benefit through a platform token.
As a result, the competition is not just about fees and interface. It is about who can give users access to the platform’s growth.
Regulation Limits Polymarket and Kalshi
Polymarket registered with the CFTC in July and is restoring operations in the US market. This strengthens the legal basis of the business but also imposes restrictions.
The situation is more complicated in Asia. The platform is blocked in Singapore, Thailand, and Taiwan, and operates with partial restrictions in Japan. In Hong Kong, prediction markets also fall under the attention of gambling regulators.
Kalshi is even more tied to regulation. Its model is built on compliance, so its flexibility is lower than that of crypto-oriented platforms.
Hyperliquid Bets on the Asian Audience
Hyperliquid does not have comparable restrictions in the same form, and its audience is more heavily skewed toward Asia. This is important because the region remains one of the centers of active on-chain trading.
For traders from such an environment, the tokenized model is familiar. They are already used to platforms where activity, fees, and the token are interconnected.
This could accelerate the adoption of HIP-4. If the product offers low fees, fast infrastructure, and an economic link through HYPE, Hyperliquid will have a strong argument against Polymarket and Kalshi.
Low Fees Remain an Important Advantage
Zero commission for opening a trade can quickly attract active participants. In prediction markets, this is especially important because traders often work with a large number of outcomes and short market cycles.
Even a small difference in fees affects overall profitability. Therefore, Hyperliquid can become a convenient platform for those who trade frequently and view events as a full-fledged asset class.
At the same time, low fees alone are not enough. The platform will need to provide liquidity, clear settlement rules, and trust in market closure mechanisms.
HYPE Turns Trading Into a Bet on the Ecosystem
Hayes’s main point comes down to the economics of ownership. A Hyperliquid user can trade events and simultaneously hold HYPE, counting on the platform’s growth.
This creates a stronger connection between the participant and the platform. If HIP-4 quickly gains momentum, part of the market may see HYPE as a way to access the growth of a new segment.
For Polymarket, such a mechanism remains an expectation for now. For Kalshi, it is almost impossible under the current legal model. Therefore, Hyperliquid has a temporary advantage.
What This Means for the Prediction Market
Prediction markets are quickly moving beyond a niche product. Now, the competition is between different types of infrastructure: regulated exchanges, crypto platforms, and hybrid models.
Hyperliquid is trying to enter this segment from the position of an already functioning trading ecosystem. It has an active user base, liquidity, and a token that can become part of the product’s new economy.
If HIP-4 is implemented without technical problems, the battle for users may intensify. Especially in Asia, where on-chain traders are quicker to adopt new trading formats.
What Next?
In the short term, the market will watch for details of the HIP-4 launch. Fees, the list of events, liquidity, and settlement rules for contracts are important.
In the medium term, the key question will be the role of HYPE. If the token really becomes a way to participate in the platform’s growth, Hyperliquid will distinguish itself from Polymarket and Kalshi not only at the product level but also at the economic level.
After that, the competition will move into a tougher phase. Polymarket may accelerate the launch of its own token, Kalshi will continue to rely on regulation, and Hyperliquid will try to capture an audience that wants to trade events without the usual restrictions and with a direct link to the platform’s growth.
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