Large players are returning to the market selectively. Arthur Hayes, after a three-month pause, has bought the HYPE token again, strengthening his bet on the Hyperliquid ecosystem. The signal was noticeable. But what matters is not only the fact of the purchase itself, but also the context around it.
First Purchase in Three Months
Hayes acquired 26,022 HYPE worth about $1.1 million. This is his first activity with the token in almost three months. After the deal, the total position increased to 247,334 HYPE. At current estimates, that is about $10.4 million. The position is already in profit. The unrealized gain is about 27%, which is equivalent to approximately $2.2 million.
Betting on the Yield Model
Hayes’s main thesis remains the same. He is betting not so much on speculative growth as on the protocol’s own economics.
The Hyperliquid model assumes that about 97% of trading fees are returned to the market through buybacks and token burns. This creates a deflationary mechanic directly tied to trader activity.
The higher the turnover, the stronger the effect. In theory, this creates long-term price support.
The Target Remains Aggressive
Hayes publicly maintains a target of around $150 per token by August 2026. From current levels, this implies more than a twofold increase.
This estimate looks bold. But it fits into his strategy, where the key factor is not the overall market, but Hyperliquid’s share in the derivatives segment.
Institutional Interest Is Growing
Alongside Hayes’s actions, another important factor is emerging. Large asset managers are starting to take notice of the token. Bitwise has already updated documents to launch an exchange-traded fund with the ticker BHYP. The management fee is stated at 0.67%.
At the same time, Grayscale has filed for its own product, GHYP. Nasdaq is being considered as the listing venue. This is an important signal. The ETF structure could open access to new capital and change the demand structure.
The Derivatives Market Is Cooling
However, the backdrop remains mixed. Activity on decentralized exchanges is declining.
Spot trading volumes in the DEX segment fell by almost 24% to $212 billion in March. These are the lowest levels since autumn 2024.
Perpetual contracts dropped even more. Volumes fell to $699 billion compared to more than $1.3 trillion at the peak in 2025.
This Is the Key Risk for HYPE
Declining activity directly affects the Hyperliquid model. Less trading — fewer fees — weaker token buybacks.
This is where the main risk lies. If turnover continues to fall, the deflationary model may work much weaker than investors expect.
At the Same Time, Hyperliquid’s Position Remains Strong
Despite the market decline, Hyperliquid maintains its leadership in the derivatives segment among decentralized platforms.
This gives the project a margin of safety. Even with falling volumes, it remains one of the key players. Over the past year, HYPE has grown by about 176%, making it one of the strongest major tokens.
The Price Responds to the Macro Backdrop
In the short-term dynamics, the token is not isolated from the market. Over the past day, HYPE has fallen by about 2% amid geopolitical tensions.
This once again highlights the current structure. Even strong projects remain dependent on external factors.
What’s Next?
Right now, HYPE faces a mixed picture. On one hand, there is support from large investors and a potential inflow of institutional capital through ETFs. On the other, there is a decline in derivatives market activity, on which the token’s economics directly depend.
The balance between these factors will determine the dynamics in the coming months. If volumes begin to recover, the buyback model will strengthen again. If not, the market will reassess its expectations. And this will be the main test for the entire HYPE concept.
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