Arthur Hayes abruptly changed his position on two altcoins he previously called some of the strongest bets of the cycle. The BitMEX co-founder announced that he sold HYPE and NEAR, citing the risk of overheated markets before September and a possible outflow of capital into major AI-company IPOs.
This is a noticeable reversal for the market. Not long ago, the investor was expecting strong growth for both assets, including a $150 target for HYPE and a multi-fold increase for NEAR in the long term. Now he believes it is time to lock in profits.
The Market May Peak Before September
In a post on X, Hayes wrote that market highs could form between now and September. According to him, several factors are influencing the situation: rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict, anticipation of major AI IPOs, and political risks in the US.
He separately noted a possible pivot by Donald Trump against the AI sector ahead of the midterm elections. In his view, such rhetoric could help Republicans in the campaign but simultaneously hurt sentiment around tech assets.
As a result, the investor decided to exit some positions. His thesis is simple: when the market is expecting several major IPOs and faces rising geopolitical risks, it is better to take profits in advance.
Sales Mark a Reversal After Strong Forecasts
The decision seems especially abrupt given Hayes’ previous assessments. He had earlier predicted that HYPE could reach $150 as soon as August, and NEAR could grow 20-fold by 2027.
Now that logic is on pause. The sale does not mean he has completely abandoned the projects’ long-term potential, but in the short term, the investor no longer wants to hold risk in these assets.
According to Onchain Lens, he sold 247,334 HYPE for about $18 million. The amount of NEAR sold was not disclosed. The deal happened soon after Hayes publicly offered Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani a $100,000 charity bet, claiming that HYPE would outperform all top 10 cryptocurrencies by the end of 2026.
HYPE and NEAR Dropped After the Investor’s Exit
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The market reacted quickly to the news. According to TradingView, HYPE fell 8.4% in a day and traded around $65. NEAR lost 17.4% and dropped to $2.34.
For both assets, this was a painful move. The drop was intensified not only by the sale itself but also by the change in public signal. When an investor who previously aggressively supported an asset exits a position, some participants begin to reassess their expectations.
At the same time, the sales came amid a weak backdrop for the entire market. Cryptocurrencies were already under pressure due to bitcoin’s decline, geopolitics, and caution ahead of major tech IPOs.
AI IPOs May Pull Capital From the Crypto Market
The main risk Hayes points to is related to upcoming IPOs of the largest AI companies. This refers to possible IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX. If they hit the market almost simultaneously, investors will have to free up a significant amount of liquidity.
According to sources, SpaceX already filed a confidential application in early April, and in May submitted documents to go public. The expected trading start date is June 12. The company could become one of the largest new public issuers.
Anthropic, according to Bloomberg, has chosen Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase to prepare the offering and could go public as early as October. OpenAI, according to Reuters, is also preparing a confidential filing, and a possible listing is already being discussed for September.
Polymarket Shows Caution on Timing
Prediction markets have not yet given a unified signal on the timing of OpenAI’s IPO. On Polymarket, 74% of participants expect an IPO by December 31, but only 35% are betting on an offering by September 30.
This shows that the market believes in the likelihood of a listing, but is cautious about the near-term timing. For cryptocurrencies, not only the fact of the IPO is important, but also the moment when investors begin to reallocate capital to participate in such deals.
If several major issuers go public before the end of the year, some money may leave cryptocurrencies, AI tokens, and other risky sectors. This is especially sensitive for altcoins, where liquidity is lower than in bitcoin and the largest tech stocks.
SpaceX Adds Its Own Intrigue to the Market
The space company’s IPO could become the most notable event of this wave. Besides its scale, it also has a crypto connection: the documents reveal bitcoin holdings. Therefore, interest in its shares may partially overlap with attention to digital assets.
However, for the crypto market, this is not necessarily a positive factor. If investors sell some crypto positions to participate in the IPO, this could worsen the demand balance in the short term. Especially if the offering happens against a backdrop of bitcoin weakness.
Judging by his actions, Hayes sees this wave of IPOs as a risk to liquidity. He is not waiting for the market to confirm the scenario, but is reducing his exposure to altcoins in advance.
US Politics Adds Uncertainty
A separate thesis from Hayes is related to Donald Trump and the AI sector. The investor believes the president could take a tougher stance on artificial intelligence if it helps Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.
For the tech market, this scenario is unpleasant. AI companies are now seen as one of the main sources of growth, and any political restrictions or rhetoric against the sector could change investor valuations.
If this topic coincides with major IPOs, the market will face a complicated combination. On one hand, strong interest in new offerings. On the other—a risk of political pressure on the very sector supporting these IPOs.
What Is Next?
The sale of HYPE and NEAR shows that Hayes has become more cautious about risk ahead of the third quarter. His previous forecasts for these assets were strong, but now he believes the market could approach local highs even before September.
For altcoins, the main question is whether liquidity can withstand competition from major IPOs. If OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX really start pulling capital, demand for volatile tokens may weaken.
So far, Hayes’ signal does not look like a rejection of the crypto market as a whole, but rather profit-taking ahead of a period of heightened uncertainty. For HYPE and NEAR, this is an unpleasant short-term factor. For the entire market, it is a reminder that major tech IPOs can become competitors for capital, not just a backdrop for growth.
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