Aster’s rally has attracted traders’ attention after the price confidently broke out of a multi-week falling wedge. However, behind the visually strong momentum lie weakening demand indicators, and a disbalance is forming in the derivatives market that could amplify any decline.
Over the week, the token gained about 12%, and over the past day — more than 8%. Formally, this confirms the breakout of the pattern, which often signals a trend reversal. But technical and derivatives data indicate that buyers lack sustainable momentum to secure success.
Divergences increase the likelihood of a local pullback
A number of indicators show that the upward movement is developing under conditions of weakening demand. On the RSI indicator, from November 2 to 16, a hidden bearish divergence was recorded: the price formed a lower high, while the RSI formed a higher high. Such a gap usually signals a decrease in buying strength and the risk of a corrective move.
A similar situation is observed on the Money Flow Index. From November 11 to 16, the price formed a local higher low, but the MFI formed a lower low. This indicates that the inflow of buying volume is decreasing, and dips are being bought up less aggressively.
Both divergences show the same thing: the market supported the wedge breakout, but did not confirm a full transition to an uptrend. To neutralize these signals, Aster needs to close the daily candle above $1.28 — only this secures the structure and cancels the divergences.
Disbalance in leveraged positions increases price vulnerability
Another risk factor is the distribution of liquidations in futures positions. On the Binance liquidation map, the volume of long positions exceeds $25.8 million, while shorts are only about $6 million. The imbalance is more than fourfold.
This structure means that Aster’s growth was mainly built on aggressive long accumulation. If the price corrects even slightly, it is the long positions that will be liquidated first, amplifying the downward movement.
Such skewed liquidation matrices often become catalysts for sharp market moves, when a small decline triggers a chain of forced sales.
Technical structure: the market is at a crossroads
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-154047" title="photo_4_2025-11-17_22-35-43" src="https://coinspot.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/photo_4_2025-11-17_22-35-43.jpg" alt="From the chart itself, Aster has indeed made a technical breakout. However, the breakout remains 'conditional' until the price records a daily close above $1.28. This is the level that turns the current momentum into a more sustainable trend." width="1280" height="673" srcset="https://coinspot.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/photo_4_2025-11-17_22-35-43.jpg 1280w, https://coinspot.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/photo_4_2025-11-17_22-35-43-342×180.jpg 342w, https://coinspot.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/photo_4_2025-11-17_22-35-43-400×210.jpg 400w, https://coinspot.io/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/photo_4_2025-11-17_22-35-43-768×404.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px" / alt="From the chart itself, Aster has indeed made a technical breakout. However, the breakout remains 'conditional' until the price records a daily close above 
From the chart itself, Aster has indeed made a technical breakout. However, the breakout remains ‘conditional’ until the price records a daily close above $1.28. This is the level that turns the current momentum into a more sustainable trend.
In the event of a pullback, the first significant support level is around $1.09. Holding this level limits the decline to a local correction. Losing this level opens the way to the $0.99 zone. This is where the clusters of long liquidations are located, making the area extremely sensitive: a move to these marks can accelerate.
On the other hand, a close above $1.28 opens the road to the next target — around $1.59, where an important medium-term resistance lies.
What’s next?
Aster has formally confirmed the breakout of the falling wedge, which is technically a bullish signal. But hidden divergences on the RSI and MFI, as well as a strong skew in liquidations towards longs, make the growth vulnerable.
- Above $1.28 the breakout becomes full-fledged
- Above $1.59 the asset will begin forming a new trend phase
- Losing $1.09 increases the risk of returning to $0.99 and triggering liquidations
The market for Aster is now balancing between continued growth and a corrective move, and the next daily closes will determine the direction of the next phase.
Read more: How to preserve capital in the crypto market: four rules that work in every cycle
