Stablecoins have stopped leaving centralized exchanges at their previous pace. Over the past month, outflows totaled $2 billion — four times less than during the acute phase of the bear market at the end of 2025. CryptoQuant records not a reversal, but a regrouping: capital is not leaving crypto, it is consolidating in one place.
One-Player Exchange
The distribution of stablecoin liquidity on CEX looks asymmetric. According to CryptoQuant, Binance holds $47.5 billion in USDT and USDC — this is 65% of the combined reserves of the two largest stablecoins on all centralized exchanges. A year ago, the figure was $35.9 billion. Over twelve months, reserves grew by 31%.
The gap between Binance and other market participants is not just large — it continues to widen. OKX ranks second with a 13% share and $9.5 billion. Coinbase accumulates 8% of the market, or $5.9 billion. Bybit rounds out the top four with 6% and $4 billion.
This concentration means that Binance de facto sets the liquidity conditions for the entire sector. When a major player controls almost two-thirds of the available stablecoins on the market, its behavior becomes an indicator, not just part of the overall picture.
USDT vs. USDC: The Choice Is Made
Within Binance’s reserves, the structure is also uneven. Of the $47.5 billion, $42.3 billion is in USDT and only $5.2 billion in USDC. The ratio is about eight to one in favor of Tether.
Over the year, USDT holdings on Binance grew by 36%. USDC reserves over the same period remained almost unchanged. This indicates that platform users, when choosing between the two stablecoins, prefer USDT — despite ongoing discussions about the issuer’s transparency.
In the broader market, USDC is actively challenging Tether in regulated jurisdictions and among institutions. Binance is currently moving in a different direction.
Panic Has Passed, a Pause Remains
At the end of 2025, when the market entered a bear phase, $8.4 billion in stablecoins left CEX in a month. This was a signal of active exit — investors were withdrawing liquidity, closing positions, and moving to fiat or cold storage. February’s $2 billion is a fundamentally different situation. There is no mass flight of capital.
But CryptoQuant’s marketing director Nick Pitto warns against optimism:
'Capital is in no hurry to leave crypto. It is concentrating — primarily on Binance.'
According to him, to confirm a bullish reversal, the opposite movement must be seen: reserves should grow or actively flow into risk assets. So far, neither is happening. Stablecoins are sitting idle on exchanges. This is neither buying nor selling — it is waiting.
Bitcoin Has Not Yet Hit Bottom
The slowdown in outflows is unfolding against the backdrop of continued pressure on Bitcoin. CryptoQuant analysts last week confirmed their previous assessment: the realized support price for BTC is around $55,000 and has not yet been tested in the current cycle.
'The final bottom of the bear market for bitcoin, around $55,000 at current prices,' the company review states.
At the time of publication, BTC is trading at $68,200, down 1.3% on the day. To the key support zone — about 19% from current levels. If the realized price does indeed act as the bottom, the market has not yet completed its downward path.
CryptoQuant indicators continue to show weakness: spot flows are negative, there is no buying activity, and institutional sentiment is cautious.
Concentration Risk
Binance’s dominance in liquidity is not just a statistic. There is a structural question behind it. What happens to the market if the behavior of one player changes.
With $47.5 billion on its balance sheet, Binance essentially acts as a buffer between the current state of the market and the next move. If pressure increases and reserves begin to shrink, this will accelerate capital outflows across the sector. If liquidity shifts into risk assets, Binance will set the pace and scale of the rally.
Concentration works both ways: it stabilizes the market during periods of uncertainty and amplifies movement when the direction is set.
What's Next?
The market is in holding mode. Stablecoins are stationary, bitcoin is holding above key support, and there are no active purchases. According to CryptoQuant, this is a stable but fragile equilibrium.
A reversal is possible in two scenarios. First — reserves on exchanges begin to grow, indicating an inflow of new capital into the system. Second — liquidity flows from stablecoins into risk assets, triggering demand. So far, neither scenario is materializing, and the market continues to wait.
Read more: Crypto Market Sentiment Plummeted in February; Bitcoin Faces Further Decline
