There is once again a fork in the market: investors are choosing between bitcoin and stocks related to artificial intelligence. BlackRock believes that fears around the US national debt could revive interest in BTC. JPMorgan, on the other hand, sees continued strong growth in the AI sector.
This difference in outlook is important for the second half of 2026. Capital is no longer flowing into all risky assets at once. Money is choosing the main story, and for now artificial intelligence looks stronger.
AI Has Taken Attention Away From Bitcoin
BlackRock’s head of digital assets Robert Mitchnick believes that bitcoin has lagged behind the market not because it lost its long-term thesis. In his view, investors have simply switched to AI.
This is clearly visible in capital flows. Tech companies, chip manufacturers, and infrastructure for artificial intelligence have become the main direction for big money. Against this backdrop, BTC, gold, and other defensive stories have temporarily faded into the background.
Bitcoin is trading around $64,360. This is about 49% below the October 2025 record, when the price reached $126,080. Back then, growth was supported by spot ETFs, including BlackRock’s largest fund.
BlackRock Expects the National Debt Theme to Return
BlackRock believes that interest in bitcoin could revive closer to the US midterm elections. The reason is a possible return of the discussion about the budget deficit, national debt, and the risk of new monetary expansion.
This is an important narrative for BTC. Bitcoin is often seen as an asset that benefits from distrust in fiat currencies and rising concerns about the financial stability of governments.
If the topic of borrowing becomes central again in the political agenda, bitcoin could get a new argument for recovery. But for now, the market is more focused on company profits and spending on AI infrastructure.
JPMorgan Bets on the AI Rally
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon sees the situation differently. He believes the stock market remains in a strong phase, and artificial intelligence has become the main source of growth.
According to his estimate, AI spending this year could approach $700 billion. At the same time, US unemployment is holding around 4.3%, and the economy remains resilient. For the stock market, this is a convenient combination: business is investing, the consumer is not collapsing, and investors continue to pay a premium for future growth.
The S&P 500 in early June rose above 7,600 points for the first time. The main support for the index came from companies related to artificial intelligence and computing infrastructure.
Dimon Remains a Bitcoin Skeptic
JPMorgan’s position is not surprising. Jamie Dimon has long been critical of bitcoin and previously called it a fraud. At the same time, he acknowledges that geopolitical and budget risks are accumulating beneath the surface of the market.
This makes the debate more interesting. Even supporters of the AI rally see that the next year or two could bring new problems: rising debt, international tensions, and questions about the stability of the financial system.
The difference is in how investors choose the main asset for these risks. BlackRock sees an opportunity for bitcoin. JPMorgan still believes that money will continue to flow into AI company stocks.
Flows Are Not on BTC’s Side for Now
Market data confirms that bitcoin is currently struggling to compete for capital. Research firm NYDIG noted weak demand for BTC.
Since May 7, spot bitcoin ETFs have lost about $6.4 billion. During this period, there were only two days with net inflows. This shows that the funds that previously supported the market are no longer providing the same demand.
A decline is also visible in stablecoins. Their balances have shrunk by about $8 billion since May 22. For the crypto market, this is an important indicator: if there are fewer stablecoins, there is also less free liquidity for purchases.
Seasonality Is Not Helping Either
NYDIG analyst Greg Cipolaro reminded that August and September have historically been weak months for bitcoin. This creates an additional risk for a quick recovery scenario.
The problem is timing. BlackRock expects the national debt and budget risk theme to intensify closer to the elections. But before that, the market may go through a seasonally weak period and continued outflows from ETFs.
If AI stocks remain attractive, investors may simply not rush to return to BTC. For a reversal, bitcoin needs not only a strong narrative but also an actual inflow of money.
AI Wins Thanks to Clear Profits
The main advantage of the AI sector right now is that investors see real spending and revenue expectations. Data centers, chips, cloud services, and software solutions give the market a clear growth chain.
Bitcoin in this sense depends on a different kind of argument. It benefits when fear of debt burden, inflation, monetary emission, or declining trust in the traditional system grows.
So the choice between BTC and AI is not just a choice between two assets. It is a choice between two scenarios: a bet on technological growth and a bet on protection from macroeconomic risks.
Politics Could Bring Bitcoin Back Into the Agenda
The US midterm elections could be the moment when the budget theme returns to the forefront. If politicians start actively discussing the deficit, debt ceiling, and new spending, the market may remember bitcoin as a hedge against monetary instability.
But such a scenario remains a future event for now. Currently, capital is going where growth is already visible in company reports, spending, and forecasts.
That is why BTC remains in a weak position. Its thesis may become strong again, but for now it is losing to the brighter and more profitable artificial intelligence story.
What Is Next?
In the coming months, the market will test both ideas. If AI companies confirm revenue growth and sustained demand, capital may continue to flow into technology sector stocks.
If, however, the US debt and monetary emission risk theme becomes louder closer to the elections, bitcoin could regain some attention. Especially if ETF outflows slow down and stablecoin liquidity starts to recover.
The main takeaway is simple. BlackRock and JPMorgan are arguing not only about bitcoin and AI. They are debating which story will become the main one for capital in the second half of 2026. For now, the market is choosing artificial intelligence. But if budget fears in the US return to the center of the agenda, BTC could get another chance.
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