Ethereum is currently consolidating below $2,300, while Bitcoin dominance is approaching the formation of a monthly ‘death cross’—this signal has only appeared twice in history. In the past, such a combination often marked the starting point for an altseason.
These two charts move almost as mirror images. ETH remains the largest altcoin, and when it starts to grow confidently against Bitcoin, capital gradually flows out of BTC. As a result, dominance decreases, and this pattern has often preceded a reversal in favor of altcoins.
Ethereum Targets $3,430
Currently, ETH is trading around $2,280 and remains within an ascending channel that has been forming since February. However, on April 27, the price fell below the channel’s midpoint—this is the first signal that sellers have temporarily taken the initiative.
Additional pressure came as the daily RSI broke its upward trendline. Such a double breach of structure often indicates a risk of deeper correction.
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At the same time, an important point is that volumes did not increase during the decline, but instead decreased. This weakens the bearish signal. According to VRVP, the area around $2,050 remains key, as significant volume is concentrated there, and this level coincides with the lower boundary of the channel. If pressure persists, the price may head there first.
On the other hand, if ETH can quickly return above the channel’s midpoint, a path for growth will open. In that case, the next target could be a move of about 50%, toward $3,430.
The nearest resistance is at $2,750, which is the previous local high. Without breaking through it, it is too early to talk about stronger growth.
ETH daily chart. Source: TradingView
Trader Fractal Points to Same $3,430 Target
Trader CryptoKaleo posted a daily ETH chart on X, where he arrives at the same $3,430 zone, but through a different logic. He noted two descending trendlines that the price is already starting to break. According to him, the structure resembles a pattern that formed earlier in 2025.
Back then, everything developed in a similar scenario. First, the price got stuck below resistance, then a sharp upward impulse followed. He considers this segment as a reference for the current situation.
Interestingly, his target zone coincides with the resistance visible on the channel chart. When different approaches point to the same level, it strengthens its significance.
If the current decline does not continue, bulls have a clear upside target around $3,430.
ETH daily chart. Source: X
Bitcoin Dominance Approaches Third ‘Death Cross’ in History
Analyst Matthew Hyland drew attention to the formation of a monthly ‘death cross’ on the BTC dominance chart. This refers to a situation where a slower moving average crosses a faster one from top to bottom. By his estimate, this could happen around June 2026.
Such a signal has only appeared twice in history. The first time was in July 2016, the second in January 2021. In both cases, dominance sharply decreased afterward, and capital actively flowed into altcoins.
Currently, BTC.D is closing at around 60.59% for the month. Although the figure remains high by recent years’ standards, the chart structure itself hints at possible weakening in the coming months.
BTC.D monthly chart. Source: X
BTC Dominance Hits 61%, the Level That Will Decide Altseason’s Fate
The weekly chart provides a clearer picture. For a long time, Bitcoin dominance grew within an ascending channel, until the structure broke in August 2025. After that, BTC.D moved sideways and from August to April traded in an accumulation range.
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In the past couple of weeks, the figure broke out of this range, but growth began to slow near 60.75%. This is almost right at the 61% level, which now essentially determines the next move.
If BTC.D can consolidate above 61%, the next targets will be 62% and then around 66%, which was the high in June. If the level holds and a reversal downward occurs, this fits the scenario with the monthly ‘death cross.’ In that case, dominance could fall to the area around 49%, where the 0.618 Fibonacci level is.
Essentially, the growth of Ethereum to $3,430 and the decline in BTC dominance are interconnected. Everything now comes down to two key levels: the 61% mark for BTC.D and the channel midpoint for ETH. These are the levels that could set the market’s direction in the coming weeks.
BTC.D weekly chart. Source: TradingView
Separately, liquidity behavior should also be considered. In recent weeks, it has been distributed more and more unevenly. The main flows are concentrated around the largest assets, while most alts remain without serious support. This creates a ‘narrow market’ effect, where only a few instruments drive the movement.
In this situation, any shifts in the balance between ETH and BTC begin to play a more noticeable role. If Ether continues to attract attention and liquidity, the effect can quickly intensify due to a chain reaction. Some capital will start moving into riskier assets, which will lay the groundwork for a full-fledged altseason.
But until that happens, the market remains in a transition phase. Participants are watching key levels and are in no hurry to take aggressive positions. That is why the next moves in ETH and BTC.D could set the tone for the entire next cycle, not just short-term dynamics.
