Bitcoin is ending May in the red. After several unsuccessful attempts to recover above key levels, the largest cryptocurrency is holding around $73,500, and the monthly candle risks closing with losses of about 3%. At the same time, investors’ attention is already shifting to the new week, where the main factor for the market will be U.S. economic data.
Despite U.S. stock indexes reaching new all-time highs, bitcoin has yet to receive support from improved sentiment in traditional markets. The easing of geopolitical tensions and progress in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have also failed to bring buyers back to the market.
Macroeconomics Comes to the Fore Again
The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7%, indicating an expansion in economic activity.
Next week promises to be one of the most important for risk assets in recent months. Investors will closely monitor U.S. labor market data, as these figures are capable of changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
Particular interest is focused on the U.S. manufacturing PMI. This indicator is considered one of the most important measures of the economy’s health and often influences the mood of financial market participants.
In recent months, PMI releases have already caused noticeable movements in bitcoin several times. Stronger data signals economic resilience, while weaker numbers can increase expectations of monetary policy easing.
For the cryptocurrency market, both scenarios matter. Improving economic indicators supports risk appetite, while a possible rate cut increases liquidity inflows into the financial system.
Bitcoin Remains Below Key Levels
The technical picture still looks ambiguous. After falling below yearly lows, buyers managed to hold the $73,000 area, but the market has yet to show a confident recovery.
Analysts note that this level is becoming the main level for the monthly close. If bitcoin manages to end the week and month above $73,000, it will keep the chances for a more sustainable reversal scenario. Otherwise, pressure on the market may intensify as early as the beginning of June.
A Double Bottom Is Forming
Some technical analysts continue to focus on the possible formation of a “double bottom” pattern. This model usually appears after a prolonged decline and is considered one of the classic trend reversal signals.
The structure began to form back in late February and remains relevant to this day. However, for final confirmation, buyers need to hold current levels and push the price above the nearest resistance zones. Without this, the pattern risks remaining incomplete.
The $60,000 to $80,000 Range Remains Relevant
A number of traders believe the market could remain stuck in a wide sideways range for a long time. Several important technical indicators are currently converging around current prices. These include long-term moving averages and key support levels formed during the previous cycle.
That is why many analysts allow for the possibility that bitcoin could trade between $60,000 and $80,000 for an extended period without forming a new sustainable trend. This scenario seems especially likely amid uncertainty around Fed policy and the overall state of the global economy.
Why the Market Is Not Reacting to Positive News
Interestingly, even the improved geopolitical backdrop is not helping bitcoin so far. Previously, markets responded positively to any signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. However, investors are now more focused on macroeconomics, inflation, and interest rate prospects.
In fact, the market is in a waiting mode. Major players prefer not to open aggressive positions until new economic data is released. This explains the low volatility of recent days and the lack of strong movement after important news.
What's Next?
The beginning of June may determine the direction of bitcoin in the coming weeks. If labor market and business activity data turn out to be favorable for risk assets, BTC will have a chance to return above $75,000 and start a recovery.
However, as long as the cryptocurrency remains below important technical levels, it is too early to talk about the end of the correction. The $73,000 area remains the main frontier for buyers, and losing this support could bring the market back to discussions of a deeper decline.
At the moment, investors are closely watching not so much crypto news as the state of the U.S. economy. The mood of the entire digital asset market now depends on it.
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