U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have returned to asset levels last seen by the market immediately after Donald Trump’s victory in the November 2024 election. This happened despite a more favorable regulatory environment and a noticeable improvement in authorities’ attitudes toward the crypto industry.
According to analysts, the combined net assets of 11 funds as of June 9 totaled $77 billion. Formally, this is almost the same level as shortly after the election. For the market, this is a negative signal: institutional demand via ETFs no longer looks as stable as it did during the post-election rally.
The Post-Election Premium Has Disappeared
After Trump’s victory, investors quickly priced in expectations of softer regulation. Bitcoin began to rise, and with it, the assets of spot funds increased. Just a week after the election, their total volume exceeded $90 billion.
Later, the figure reached a historic high of $169 billion in October 2025. At that time, the market was actively buying into the idea that the new administration would give the industry more legal certainty and reduce pressure from regulators.
Now, most of that movement has been erased. Fund assets have returned to the zone where the post-election rally began. This shows that regulatory expectations alone are no longer keeping capital in bitcoin.
The Regulatory Environment Has Improved, but Investors Are Leaving
The paradox of the situation is that conditions for the crypto market in the U.S. have become noticeably better. The SEC under the new administration has dropped a number of high-profile cases against industry companies. The country has also established a strategic bitcoin reserve.
Additionally, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is advancing in Washington. This bill is expected to divide the powers of the SEC and CFTC and give the industry clearer operating rules.
Normally, such a backdrop should support demand. But now the market is reacting differently. Money is leaving ETFs, and investors are focusing less on regulatory wins and more on inflation, interest rates, and competition from other market stories.
Over Four Weeks, More Than $5 Billion Withdrawn From Funds
Outflows have accelerated. Over the past four weeks, spot funds have lost more than $5 billion in net withdrawals. This has become one of the main factors putting pressure on the price of BTC.
The total inflow since the launch of ETFs has also dropped significantly. In October 2025, it reached $62.77 billion when bitcoin was at its all-time high. Now the figure has fallen by almost $9 billion to $53.77 billion. This is the lowest level since August of last year.
For the market, the number itself is not the only important thing. ETFs were the main entry channel for institutional capital. When this channel starts to return money, it becomes harder for bitcoin to hold its price even amid positive regulatory news.
Inflation Hits Bitcoin Again
Analysts primarily link the current outflows to macroeconomics. High inflation is making the market expect a tougher stance from the Fed. And when the rate stays high or could rise, demand for risky assets decreases.
Binance Research notes that ETF withdrawals reflect short-term pressure from inflation and tougher Fed expectations. At the same time, on-chain supply indicators remain stronger, but so far this is not enough for a reversal.
For bitcoin, this is an important crossroads. The long-term thesis of a scarce asset remains, but in the short term, investors are choosing liquidity and caution. Especially when yields on dollar instruments once again look more attractive.
AI and SpaceX Are Drawing Market Attention
Another factor is competition for capital. Former 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder believes investors are being distracted by other major themes: AI, SpaceX, and new high-profile growth stories.
This does not mean that money is leaving cryptocurrencies forever. But at the moment, major narratives are competing with each other. If the market is anticipating big IPOs, new AI deals, or a SpaceX listing, some capital may temporarily exit BTC and related products.
Such a shift is especially sensitive for ETFs. Funds are convenient for quickly reallocating money: an investor can reduce their bitcoin position and move into another story without having to deal with crypto exchanges or wallets.
Geopolitics Adds Caution
The market is also factoring in a broader set of risks. Among them are tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. employment data, inflation, and overall macroeconomic uncertainty.
When there are many such factors, investors more often reduce exposure to volatile assets. In this environment, bitcoin is once again trading as a risky instrument, not as a fully independent alternative to the traditional market.
That is why improved regulation has not become a decisive argument. Legal clarity is important for long-term infrastructure, but short-term flows depend on the cost of money, rate expectations, and competition for investors’ attention.
What Is Next?
Bitcoin ETFs have found themselves at a difficult point. The regulatory environment in the U.S. has become softer, but capital is still leaving. This suggests that the market is now reacting more strongly to macroeconomics and new growth stories than to political promises and reforms.
A reversal in flows is needed for funds to recover. If inflation starts to fall, the Fed softens its tone, and interest in BTC rises again, ETFs could quickly regain some assets. But for now, the data show the opposite: investors are reducing positions and waiting for a clearer backdrop.
The main takeaway is simple. Trump’s victory and a friendlier policy helped bitcoin in the last growth cycle. But now that is not enough. For ETFs to become a strong source of demand again, the market needs not only good rules but also a return of risk appetite.
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