Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net capital outflows for the fourth consecutive month. Since October 2025, their combined reserves have decreased by 85,000 BTC. Against this backdrop, the question arises: does the slowdown in institutional demand pose a serious threat to the price of bitcoin?
Funds focused on the spot BTC market are close to ending their fourth consecutive month with negative net flows. At the same time, bitcoin itself is approaching its fifth consecutive month of closing in the red in February. The slowdown is clearly visible in the shrinking fund balances and the negative trend in rolling net flows, especially when compared to ETFs for other asset classes.
Since October, the price of BTC and the volume of assets in spot ETFs have been moving down in sync. Against this background, investors are trying to understand whether this is a temporary pause in institutional interest or a signal for a deeper market correction.
Bitcoin ETFs in the Spotlight
The net asset value of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US peaked at about $170 billion in October 2025. Now this figure has decreased to $84.3 billion. Total net inflows have also fallen: from a historic high of $63 billion they have dropped to about $54 billion.
Since July 2025, the cumulative net inflow has been only $5 billion, highlighting a sharp slowdown in capital flowing into this segment.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. analyzed the dynamics over seven trading sessions from February 12 to 19. During this period, net outflows from ETFs reached 11,042 BTC. The largest single-day outflow was recorded on February 12, with funds shrinking by 6,120 BTC, equivalent to about $416 million.
See Also: Trump’s Stablecoin USD1 Briefly Lost Its Peg. WLFI Reported an Attack
On February 17 and 18, outflows continued for two consecutive days, totaling 1,520 BTC and 1,980 BTC respectively. Positive dynamics were observed in only two sessions, with funds seeing an inflow of 5,900 BTC on February 6.
Seven-day average net flows into spot BTC ETFs. Source: Axel Adler Jr.
According to Adler, to confirm a resumption of accumulation in spot ETFs at least three consecutive sessions with net inflows are required. So far, this has not happened, and fund flows continue to be a source of supply for the market.
The overall macroeconomic picture supports the cooling trend. Since November 2025, funds have reduced reserves by about 87,000 BTC, with about 15,000 BTC in February alone. The total BTC on ETF balances is now about 1.26 million BTC compared to the previous peak of 1.36 million BTC.
Assets under management in bitcoin ETFs. Source: checkonchain
Pressure from the largest funds is already reflected in the numbers. The BTC balance of BlackRock IBIT fell from 806,000 BTC to 759,000 BTC, a decrease of about 6%. Fidelity FBTC holdings dropped from 213,000 BTC to 186,000 BTC, a decline of 12.6%.
Meanwhile, the price of bitcoin itself has fallen much more sharply than ETF asset volumes. The spot market has yet to show enough demand to fully offset the overall selling pressure.
Gold Steals the Spotlight From Bitcoin ETFs
Over the past two years, leadership in capital flows between bitcoin ETFs and gold funds has regularly shifted, if you look at the 90-day rolling trend.
The peak of inflows into bitcoin ETFs came in March 2024, when the figure approached $16 billion. Then interest cooled noticeably: from June to October, inflows fluctuated between $3 billion and $4 billion. However, in December 2024 the market saw a new surge, and 90-day inflows reached $21.6 billion.
Inflows into BTC and gold ETFs. Source: bold.report.com
The situation with gold ETFs developed differently. Until July 2024, investors were mostly withdrawing money. Then the trend reversed. By April 2025, 90-day inflows had grown to $30 billion.
At the same time, interest in bitcoin ETFs weakened. In March and April 2025, their 90-day figure went negative and fell to minus $2 billion.
In October 2025, gold was once again in the spotlight. Inflows reached $36 billion. Toward the end of the year, fund flows into bitcoin ETFs continued to decline. In January 2026, gold attracted another $29 billion. By mid-February, this figure had dropped to $21 billion. Meanwhile, flows into bitcoin ETFs remained negative.
The pattern repeats. When demand for bitcoin ETFs weakens, money more often goes into gold. This was especially noticeable from March to October 2025.
The reason is clear. In times of uncertainty, investors more often choose assets with lower volatility and a long history. Gold looks more reliable in such moments.
Tight Financial Conditions Weigh on BTC Demand
ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen describes the first quarter of 2026 as a “late-cycle restrictive digestion” phase for the stock and crypto markets. In his view, markets are going through a slowdown phase after a period of active growth.
In December 2025, the US Federal Reserve ended its quantitative tightening program and stopped reducing its balance sheet. However, monetary policy itself remains tight relative to expectations for further market growth.
See Also: XRP Loses 51% of Its Price, but the Network Is Growing. Payments Reached 2.5 Million per Day
The federal funds rate remains above the yield on two-year Treasury bonds. The 10-year yield is around 4.1%, and the real 10-year yield is in the range of 1.7% to 1.8%. This keeps financial conditions tight.
A positive real yield means investors can earn returns adjusted for inflation in the bond market. In such conditions, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin increases.
BTC return from the market cycle bottom. Source: Into The Cryptoverse
Cowen also noted that in previous monetary tightening cycles, bitcoin began to weaken before the stock market. In 2019, the price of BTC turned downward several months before signs of pressure became apparent in the stock market.
Historically, sustained inflows into bitcoin ETFs have started after a decline in real yields or a clear shift to an easing cycle. Neither of these conditions has yet formed. This may explain the cooling of demand for spot bitcoin ETFs since October 2025.
