Bitcoin is once again approaching an important technical signal. The MVRV metric, which compares the market value of BTC to its realized value, is close to forming a ‘golden cross.’ In previous cycles, this signal appeared before strong growth phases.
The market is already testing this scenario. BTC rose to $83,000, short-term holders are back in profit, and analysts are increasingly talking about the end of the bear phase.
MVRV Indicates a Change in Market Structure
According to CryptoQuant, the MVRV Ratio is approaching a crossover with the 200-day EMA. Analysts consider such a crossover one of the signals of a trend reversal.
The meaning of the metric is simple. MVRV shows how much the current market valuation of bitcoin differs from the average price at which coins were last moved on the network.
When the indicator starts to turn upward, it often signals a return in demand. This is especially true if the signal appears after a prolonged correction.
History Makes the Signal More Important
The last time a similar crossover appeared was after the bottom of the 2022 cycle. Then, bitcoin rose from $16,300 to $31,000 in the first quarter of 2023.
Another signal in September 2023 preceded even greater growth. After that, BTC went through a long upward cycle and later updated its all-time high.
That is why the current ‘golden cross’ has attracted the market’s attention. Analysts see it not as a separate indicator, but as part of a broader structural shift.
Short-Term Holders Are Profitable Again
The rise to $83,000 improved the position of short-term investors. Their average purchase price is once again below the current rate.
This is important for sentiment. When new participants exit losses, selling pressure usually decreases, and the market gets more room to continue moving.
According to Glassnode, the next overheating zone for short-term holders is around $92,000. A stronger risk zone is closer to $104,000.
The $82,500 Level Becomes the Main Test
Bitcoin has once again approached the 200-day moving average around $82,500. This level has become the boundary between continued recovery and the risk of a new pullback.
If BTC holds above it, the market may consider the multi-month downtrend to be over. In that case, the next targets will be $92,000 and higher.
If the price does not hold the level, some analysts allow for a return to lower zones. This means there is a risk of another correction if buyers do not confirm their strength.
MACD Strengthens the Bullish Scenario
On the weekly chart, some analysts note the formation of a bullish signal on the MACD. This indicator shows changes in trend strength and is often used to assess major reversals.
An additional factor was the breakout of the downward line that had limited BTC for several months. Together, these signals indicate a gradual transition of the market to a stronger phase.
However, confirmation is still needed. For sustainable growth, it is important for bitcoin to consolidate above key averages, not just touch them.
Market Capitalization Also Rebounds From Support
Some analysts look not only at the price of BTC, but also at its market capitalization. In their opinion, capitalization and RSI on the monthly chart have bounced off multi-year support zones.
Such a signal is important on large timeframes. It shows that the market may be forming a long-term base, not just a short-term rebound.
A similar structure was observed after the end of the previous bear market. Then, the recovery developed gradually but led to strong growth in the following months.
Forecasts Become More Aggressive
Against the backdrop of improving technicals, some analysts are once again talking about a ‘supercycle.’ In the bullish scenario, BTC targets are named in the $180,000–250,000 range as early as this year.
Such estimates remain bold. They depend on the inflow of institutional capital, ETF dynamics, and the overall state of global markets.
Nevertheless, the very fact that such forecasts are returning shows a change in sentiment. The market is once again discussing not only recovery but also new highs.
The Risk of a Pullback Remains
Despite strong signals, the market has not yet left the testing zone. BTC must hold levels above $82,500 and confirm growth with volume.
Without this, the ‘golden cross’ on MVRV may remain an early signal, not a guarantee of a new rally. Historically, such indicators work better when paired with price confirmation.
Therefore, the next daily and weekly candle closes will be key. They will show whether the market is ready for the next stage of growth.
What This Means for the Market
Bitcoin has received several arguments in favor of recovery at once. MVRV is close to a ‘golden cross,’ short-term holders are back in profit, and the price is testing the 200-day average.
This strengthens the bullish scenario. But the market still has to prove that growth is based not only on expectations, but on sustainable demand. The main focus zone now is $82,500. Consolidating above it could open the way to $92,000 and then to higher targets.
What's Next?
If BTC stays above the 200-day average, the market could quickly move to test the $92,000 zone. That will be the first overheating area for short-term holders.
If there is no consolidation, a return to supports and a new test of demand is likely. In such a scenario, talk of a ‘supercycle’ will temporarily fade into the background.
For now, the structure has become noticeably stronger. But for a full reversal, bitcoin needs to confirm the ‘golden cross’ not only with on-chain metrics, but also with price movement.
Read more: Solana ETFs Attract Most Since February, Market Awaits SOL at $120
