Since 2020, bitcoin (BTC) has proven stronger than almost all of the top-100 altcoins. And judging by the charts, the altcoin market’s decline may not be over yet. Some calculations suggest a drop of nearly 50% from current levels is possible.
Currently, the total altcoin market capitalization tracked by the TOTAL2 index is holding around $864 billion. The market has dropped noticeably over the past week.
Two charts at once point to continued pressure.
Bitcoin Has Greatly Outperformed the Top 100 Altcoins of 2020
The first chart brings together the 100 largest cryptocurrencies at the start of 2020. For convenience, their starting value is set at 100. Bitcoin is measured in dollars, while the other coins are compared to it directly.
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Over five years, BTC has grown to nearly 1000 on a logarithmic scale. Most altcoins show a very different picture. Many not only lagged behind bitcoin but lost 90–99% of their value relative to it. The worst result on the chart belongs to Terra Luna Classic (LUNC).
Only a few coins managed to stay near their starting levels. The rest gradually lost ground, despite big names and popularity in previous cycles.
The chart clearly shows one simple thing: in many cases, buying bitcoin would have brought investors much better results than betting on individual altcoins. Even projects considered strong ultimately fell far behind BTC.
BTC vs. Top 100 Coins Since 2020. Source: Reddit
Just a few coins managed to stay near their starting levels. However, the overall picture shows that investors who abandoned bitcoin in favor of even the most resilient altcoins suffered losses for years.
The current correction has not changed this trend. Bitcoin is trading around $61,228, down about 2% in a day and almost 44% compared to last year’s highs.
Altcoins, meanwhile, have dropped even more. Over the past 30 days, BTC has lost about 24%, while Ethereum (ETH) has dropped by about 31%.
Altcoin Market Cap Could Fall to $436 Billion by July
The second chart shows the dynamics of the TOTAL2 index on the weekly timeframe and highlights three market cycles. The most recent peak in altcoin capitalization was recorded at $1.77 trillion.
History provides two benchmarks for comparison. During the 2018 bear market, altcoin capitalization collapsed by 92% over 49 weeks. In the 2021–2022 cycle, the drop was 75% and lasted 31 weeks.
On average, such declines lasted about 40 weeks. If you apply the more recent scenario of a 75% drop from the peak of $1.77 trillion, the potential market bottom would be around $436 billion.
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Currently, TOTAL2 is at $864.73 billion, having fallen below the recently lost mark of $942.62 billion. The support zone around $494.05 billion previously served as the minimum of the last cycle.
A drop to $436 billion would mean breaking this support and retesting the 2022 low at $427.57 billion. If this scenario plays out, the altcoin market could lose almost 50% from current values.
TOTAL2 Weekly Chart. Source: TradingView
In terms of timing, this scenario points to about mid-July 2026, or about 40 weeks after the market top formed. The main factor putting pressure on altcoins remains the growth of bitcoin dominance, which continues to pull capital away from riskier assets.
However, past cycles do not guarantee the same scenario will repeat in the future. Capital flows into spot bitcoin ETFs and the overall macroeconomic situation could either speed up events or make the correction deeper.
The bearish scenario will start to lose strength if TOTAL2 can hold above $942.62 billion on the weekly chart. Until then, the technical picture remains negative and points to the likelihood of further market decline, as well as a possible delay of the next altseason.
