On Friday, BTC dropped to $105,711, updating its local minimum. The pressure increased amid a new wave of problems in the US banking sector.
BTC price dynamics. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin could sharply drop to $98,000 — traders expect a repeat of the 2023 scenario
According to TradingView, the price of BTC fell below $106,000 for the first time since June.
The crypto market reacted to alarming signals from the US banking sector. Shares of regional banks began to plummet — just like in March 2023. Back then, bitcoin and altcoins experienced a sharp collapse, followed by a rapid rebound. The price of BTC briefly dropped below $20,000.
‘In March 2023, regional bank stocks crashed, the crisis seemed to be contained, but in fact nothing changed,’ analysts at The Kobeissi Letter noted in a post on X.
Against this backdrop, some traders started talking about a possible retest of the $100,000 level and even a breakdown below it.
Some market participants believe that the current drop is an attempt to close the long wick of the daily candle that appeared last week amid concerns about a trade war between the US and China. At that time on Binance, the price of BTC briefly fell to $102,000.
‘Bitcoin is working off the wick on Binance. If it doesn’t stop here, it could reach the lower boundary — the 50-week moving average,’ wrote trader SuperBro on X.
BTC/USD chart, 1 day, with 50-week MA. Source: SuperBro/X
BTC dropped to the 200-day MA — almost no support left above $101,000
Bitcoin broke through several moving average levels on the daily timeframe and tested the 200-day MA for the first time in half a year.
‘BTC lost support at $108,000. Now there is almost no support until $101,000–102,000,’ agreed crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows.
He added:
‘If bitcoin manages to return above $110,000 — a rebound is possible. If not — get ready for continued pressure before it gets easier.’
BTC/USDT chart, 1 day. Source: Ted Pillows/X
Peter Schiff against bitcoin again
The banking crisis hit not only the crypto market but also gold — although it remains the main beneficiary of the current turbulence. At the close of the day, the price of XAU updated its all-time high.
XAU/USD chart, 1 hour. Source: TradingView
While bitcoin is falling, gold fans note its divergence from crypto. Noted BTC critic Peter Schiff, head and chief economist of investment company Europac, once again reminded of his position. According to him, an ounce of gold will reach $1 million before bitcoin does.
In Peter Schiff’s opinion, the market is not only fleeing the dollar, but also abandoning bitcoin:
‘BTC failed the test. It has become neither a full-fledged alternative to the dollar nor digital gold,’ he said in a recent discussion on X.
However, not everyone agrees. Some market participants believe that a reversal in favor of BTC is brewing.
‘Judging by how the market is behaving, it is quite logical to expect that profits will soon start flowing from gold to bitcoin,’ says crypto trader Jelle.
In the attached chart, he showed how BTC at times outpaced gold, and then caught up to it in different market periods.
BTC/USD vs XAU/USD chart. Source: Jelle/X
