Bitcoin once again tried to consolidate above $78,000, but the growth quickly slowed amid worsening macroeconomic expectations in the US. Pressure increased due to Walmart’s weak forecast, rising oil prices, and renewed concerns about Fed policy.
Nevertheless, large traders have started to reduce short positions and gradually increase longs. This shows that the market is not expecting a deep BTC crash for now and continues to defend the area around $76,000.
Large Traders Begin to Exit Shorts
Position data on Binance and OKX show the ratio of longs to shorts has risen to a two-week high. On Binance, the bias toward long positions has persisted for several days in a row, while on OKX, traders have significantly reduced bets on a decline.
This does not yet look like an aggressive bull market. In absolute terms, positions remain close to neutral. But the dynamics themselves show a shift in sentiment: market participants have cautiously started returning to buying after a series of corrections.
The level around $76,000 remains especially important. This area now appears to be the main short-term foundation for BTC.
Macroeconomics Once Again Hinders the Crypto Market
The main problem for bitcoin remains the situation in the American economy. Walmart published a weak forecast for 2027, after which the company’s shares fell by about 7%.
Walmart CFO John Furner said that low-income consumers are facing serious financial pressure. For the market, this is an important signal, since Walmart is traditionally considered one of the indicators of the state of the American consumer.
At the same time, oil is increasing the pressure. Brent has been holding above $95 per barrel for about a month amid the conflict around Iran and problems in the Strait of Hormuz. Rising energy prices are pushing inflation up and complicating the Fed’s task.
The Market Is Once Again Afraid of Rate Hikes
Just a month ago, traders were counting on Fed policy easing. Now the situation has changed dramatically.
The probability of a rate hike by September, according to the interest rate futures market, has risen to about 37%. A month ago, this figure was essentially near zero.
This is a negative factor for the crypto market. High rates make risky assets less attractive, and borrowing costs continue to rise. In addition, the Fed’s tight policy limits the inflow of liquidity that previously supported the growth of BTC and tech stocks.
ETFs Continue to Lose Money
Institutional demand for bitcoin also remains weak. Since May 12, spot BTC ETFs in the US have recorded a net outflow of about $2.07 billion.
An additional signal was the negative Coinbase Premium. The BTC price on Coinbase was trading about 0.1% lower than on major exchanges with USDT pairs. This usually indicates weaker demand from American institutional investors.
As long as ETFs continue to lose capital, it is difficult for the market to form a full-fledged impulse for a new upward trend.
The Futures Market Begins to Calm Down
At the same time, the situation in the perpetual futures market looks more stable than a week ago. The funding rate has returned to neutral levels after sellers previously put strong pressure on the market.
Now the funding rate around 7% no longer looks extreme. For comparison, on May 14, short sellers were paying about 13% to hold positions. This indicated a strong bias toward bets on a decline.
Now the balance has started to even out. This does not guarantee growth, but it shows that the market has stopped pricing in an immediate BTC crash.
Why $82,000 Remains a Difficult Target for Now
Despite the growth of longs among large traders, the path to $82,000 remains challenging. Pressure from macroeconomics, high rates, and weak institutional demand still limits growth potential.
The market has essentially found itself between two scenarios. On the one hand, traders are gradually starting to believe in the resilience of support around $76,000. On the other hand, ETFs continue to lose money, and the US economy is giving more and more worrying signals.
In such a situation, BTC may remain in a wide range until a stronger driver appears.
What’s Next?
The market is now closely watching several factors at once: oil, Fed actions, and flows into spot ETFs. These will determine whether bitcoin can return to sustained growth.
For now, the market structure looks more cautious than panicked. Large traders are no longer betting as actively on a decline, and the $76,000 area continues to hold.
But for a full move to $82,000, the market will likely need a return of institutional demand and a weakening of pressure from the US macroeconomy.
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