Bitcoin maintains a strong backdrop despite jitters around Iran and the aftermath of the KelpDAO hack. The main signal came from the institutional market: US spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $663 million on Friday, and weekly inflows reached $996 million. This is the best daily result since mid-January and another confirmation that large capital continues to enter BTC.
For the market, not only the number itself is important, but also its sustainability. If ETF inflows persist for several sessions in a row, it starts to be seen not as a tactical bet, but as structural demand. This is exactly the mode bitcoin needs if the market wants to see not just a rebound, but a full-fledged move higher.
Bitcoin ETFs Show Steady Demand
Against a backdrop of complex news flow, ETFs look like the strongest support factor. Nearly $1 billion in a week is not a local spike, but a signal that institutional investors continue to use dips and instability to build positions. For bitcoin, this is especially important now, as the market remains sensitive to macroeconomics and geopolitics.
At the same time, analysts rightly point to a key condition. A strong day by itself does not launch a new cycle. The market needs repeatability. It is the sequence of inflows, not a single loud result, that creates a sense of sustained demand.
Bitcoin Holds, but Has Not Accelerated Yet
The BTC price remains above $75,000 after the recent move to $78,000. This is a decent result, considering the external backdrop, but there is still no full-fledged breakout. Bitcoin is holding the level, but has not yet shown broad readiness to accelerate.
This dynamic indicates a transitional phase. There are buyers, but the market is still cautious. Participants are not rushing to aggressively increase risk, despite strong ETF flows.
Geopolitics Weighs on Risk Appetite
At the same time, the situation around Iran continues to affect the market. Negative reactions from stock exchanges and ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East reduce investors’ willingness to expand positions in risky assets. Bitcoin looks resilient in this environment, but still lags behind the speed shown by stocks on certain days.
This is an important contradiction. On one hand, ETFs create a base for growth. On the other, the macro backdrop does not yet allow the market to feel free. As a result, BTC is holding, but not moving into an impulse.
KelpDAO Hits DeFi Again Through Aave
Meanwhile, the market is digesting the consequences of the KelpDAO hack. This episode became the main internal stress for DeFi at the start of the week. The AAVE token fell by about 1%, and the protocol itself continues to face collateral damage due to the use of compromised collateral and growing user anxiety.
At the same time, the DeFi dominance indicator, which reflects the sector’s share of total market capitalization, remained around 3%. This is an interesting point. There is pressure on individual projects, but the entire segment has not yet shown a collapse in structure. The market is rather recording a local infection than a systemic collapse.
The Hit to Aave Did Not Destroy the Entire Sector
This distinguishes the current situation from broader crises of past cycles. Even after a high-profile hack, the market did not start massively selling off DeFi assets. Yes, Aave remains under pressure, and the KelpDAO story raises more questions about the security of bridges and collateral models. But the overall weight of the sector in market capitalization is not yet decreasing.
This backdrop can be interpreted in two ways. On one hand, it shows the market’s resilience. On the other, it indicates that participants have become accustomed to such incidents and no longer see every hack as the start of a total crisis.
Shorts Begin to Accumulate
Another important factor is trader positioning. The volume of short positions, that is, bets against an upward breakout, is growing in the market. This makes the situation potentially explosive. If the price holds and starts to rise, short sellers will have to close, which can amplify the movement due to forced demand.
This is why the current structure looks interesting for bulls. The market is not yet showing euphoria, but already contains fuel for acceleration. If sellers are wrong with their timing, their closing may become the trigger for the next surge.
Bullish Scenario Rests on Two Pillars
Currently, bitcoin has two main sources of support.
- The first is steady ETF inflows, which give the market a sense of structural demand.
- The second is the accumulation of short positions, which increases the likelihood of a short squeeze with any strong move higher.
But there are also constraints. Macroeconomics and geopolitics do not yet allow the market to relax. That is why the growth looks more like preparation for a move than a completed breakout.
Solana Remains the Weak Link Among Major Altcoins
Against this backdrop, Solana stands out. The token has been trading below the important zone around $95 for 11–12 weeks, and the market has not yet managed to reclaim this level. In technical logic, this means that former support has turned into resistance, and buyers remain too weak to reverse the structure.
This behavior confirms a broader conclusion about altcoins. Even if bitcoin holds confidently, not the entire market is ready to follow. For some major coins, the picture remains bearish, meaning capital inflows are still distributed very selectively.
What’s Next?
The immediate question for the market is this: will ETF flows hold and turn into a sustainable accumulation regime? If so, bitcoin will have a chance to test recent highs again and try to consolidate above. In this case, accumulated shorts may only strengthen the movement.
If inflows turn out to be short-term and the geopolitical backdrop worsens again, the market risks getting stuck in a range. For now, the base scenario remains moderately positive: institutional demand supports bitcoin, DeFi digests local stress, and the market structure is gradually building the conditions for a new upward move.
Read More: Kelp DAO Accuses LayerZero of Default Setting That Led to $290 Million Hack
