According to analysts, bitcoin may remain under pressure in August: after the July recovery, the market does not look ready for sustainable growth, and the risk of falling below $60,000 persists.
By the end of July, the main cryptocurrency recovered part of its losses and showed double-digit growth from a multi-year low. But the experts surveyed are in no hurry to declare the start of a new bull phase.
The experts’ baseline assessment is restrained: August is more likely to be a month of testing key levels than a point of confident reversal.
At the end of July, bitcoin is trading around $63,500. This is about 50% below the all-time high of October 2025, when the price reached $126,200 per coin. In early July, the BTC rate fell to $58,000 — the lowest level since 2024, after which it climbed to $67,000 over several weeks with almost no pullbacks.
As a result, the market again found itself in a narrow corridor of $60,000–65,000, which has held since early June. Previously, from February to April, the price moved in the $65,000–75,000 range, and in May it tried to consolidate closer to $80,000, but the growth did not continue.
Why Bitcoin Is Pressured by Rates, Inflation, and a Strong Dollar
Several analysts believe that bitcoin is now facing one of the most difficult macroeconomic combinations. Rufat Abyasov, founder of GK GBIG HOLDINGS, highlights the main pressure factors as:
- high interest rates in the US;
- persistently high inflation;
- expensive oil.
In addition to the macro background, bitcoin’s price can be influenced by regulation, demand from institutional investors, network technology updates, and security news: any strong signal in these areas quickly changes risk appetite.
Alexander Krayko, lead analyst at crypto broker Cifra Markets, holds a similar position. According to him, for full-fledged bitcoin growth, the market needs lower rates and, as a result, lower yields on government bonds. While the yield on conservative instruments remains attractive, some capital goes there instead of into cryptocurrencies and other risky assets.
Investor expectations are also affected by the Federal Reserve: as long as the market does not see conditions for a significant easing of monetary policy, demand for speculative assets remains limited. In such an environment, the US dollar and fixed-income instruments continue to compete with the crypto market for capital.
Nikita Bredikhin, lead investment analyst at Go Invest, adds that some investors choose stocks and other assets without guaranteed returns. In his view, traders are now more often looking at shares of semiconductor manufacturers and artificial intelligence developers than at cryptocurrencies.
This picture is confirmed by the dynamics of bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds. The first half of the year ended with a net outflow of $5.4 billion — the worst result since such ETFs launched in January 2024. In June alone, investors withdrew a record $4.5 billion. Rufat Abyasov describes the July inflow as near zero: the week ending July 24 brought only $33.8 million.
The launch of crypto ETFs in the US in 2024 and the influx of institutional money were among the drivers of the previous rally. When investors buy ETF shares, issuers purchase cryptocurrency to back the issued securities, thereby creating additional demand for the underlying asset.
August Has Historically Remained a Weak Month for the Crypto Market
Crypto expert Viktor Pershikov draws attention to seasonality: August is rarely a strong month for digital assets. Historical statistics confirm this. In 2013–2025, the average August return was 1.12%, but the median was negative — minus 7.49%. This difference indicates that negative periods were more common.
Regulation in the US remains an additional source of uncertainty. Rufat Abyasov specifically highlights the CLARITY Act bill, which is important for the crypto industry. Many market participants see its possible adoption as a bullish signal for bitcoin and the sector as a whole, but the document has not been agreed upon for more than a year.
The technical picture is also important for the market. The BTC/USD pair continues to hold in a sideways range, and buyers have not yet shown enough strength for a confident breakout above local resistance. At the same time, the bitcoin blockchain itself remains the asset’s basic infrastructure, but the price now mostly reacts to capital flows, rates, and overall investor risk sentiment.
What Investors Should Do: Levels, Scenarios, and Risks
Rufat Abyasov believes that the market is in the final phase before the start of a new bitcoin cycle. He recalls that in previous periods, the bear market lasted about 400 days. Therefore, the expert calls current prices suitable for gradual accumulation, but warns: a short-term decline to the $60,000–55,000 area is still possible.
In the logic of such cycles, the market usually goes through several phases: accumulation after a sharp decline, bullish growth, distribution at high levels, and a bearish pullback. For the price, this is important because in the accumulation phase, demand forms gradually, and sharp growth usually begins after exiting the sideways range.
Abyasov’s forecast for the coming month boils down to three scenarios:
- baseline scenario: movement in the $58,000–68,000 corridor; probability — 50%;
- negative scenario: falling below $58,000 and declining to $50,000–55,000; probability — 30%;
- positive scenario: growth above $67,000 with a target of $71,000–75,000; probability — 20%.
The key support zone is around $60,000–61,000. Consolidation above $67,000 could break the downtrend.
Alexander Krayko also allows for bitcoin to rise to $70,000, but believes that after this, a new wave of decline is highly likely.
In the next two months, the area around $53,000 remains the benchmark.
At the same time, Krayko believes that on a global scale, the market is already at interesting levels for long-term entry.
Nikita Bredikhin also advises building positions in bitcoin and strong projects, but urges more caution with memecoins and young coins. He does not rule out a retest of $60,000, which is now the lower boundary of the sideways trend.
Viktor Pershikov gives one of the most optimistic forecasts for August. He allows for a 7–10% increase in crypto market capitalization and does not rule out BTC moving to $70,000. But in his view, the end of the correction cycle is still far off.
More or less serious movements may not occur until the fourth quarter of this year at the earliest.
In this situation, it is important for investors to look not only at the price of bitcoin. The overall background is most influenced by:
- interest rates;
- inflation;
- ETF dynamics;
- interest in risky assets;
- behavior of major market participants.
Even if the cryptocurrency looks cheaper than previous highs, the main digital currency remains volatile, and August may be more of a test of patience than a month of major breakthroughs. Among other benchmarks, market participants also monitor industry infrastructure, including major services like Coinbase, as sentiment around such platforms often reflects overall interest in crypto assets.
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