BTC opened the new week at $64,700 — down 5% in 24 hours. On-chain data paints a picture of a market that has gone through an acute phase of panic but has not yet found solid ground.
Large Holders Account for Most of the Selling Flow
The drop itself is less remarkable than who is behind it. The CryptoQuant “whale ratio” indicator reached 0.64 — the highest since 2015. This means that nearly two-thirds of all bitcoin flowing to exchanges comes from just the ten largest daily deposits.
The average size of a single deposit has risen to levels last seen in mid-2022. Retail investors are not the main source of pressure right now — it is the large players who are selling. This changes the interpretation of what is happening: such sell-offs are usually more controlled and targeted than the chaotic panic of small holders.
Losses of Recent Buyers Cut in Half
In early February, short-term holders were locking in total daily losses of $1.24 billion — according to Glassnode, the seven-day moving average dropped to this value on February 6. This is one sign of acute capitulation: people who bought recently are selling below their entry price.
Since then, the figure has improved to $480 million per day. Panic pressure has eased, but not disappeared. Recent buyers are still, on average, closing positions at a loss — this dynamic is typical for a bottom accumulation phase, not the start of a new rally.
Bitcoin Inflow to Exchanges Has Dropped, but the Structure Has Changed
At the time of the February crash to $60,000, daily BTC inflow to exchanges reached 60,000 coins. Now, the smoothed figure has dropped to 23,000 BTC per day — the acute wave of position dumping is over.
However, the composition of this flow has changed. Previously, the main volume came from many small outflows — a sign of broad retail stress. Now the picture is concentrated: a few large participants form most of the exchange supply. This suggests the market has shifted from mass panic to narrower but potentially more resilient pressure.
Liquidity to Buy Has Sharply Decreased
The dynamics of stablecoins deserve special attention. Net USDT inflow to exchanges has fallen from $616 million in November — the annual high — to $27 million now. At the end of January, the figure briefly went negative.
Stablecoin inflow traditionally reflects market participants’ willingness to buy. Its sharp contraction means that marginal demand for BTC is currently weak. There is significantly less money on exchanges waiting to enter than a few months ago.
At the same time, activity in altcoins is growing: the average daily volume of alternative token deposits to exchanges reached about 49,000 in 2026, compared to 40,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025. Historically, such activity growth coincides with increased volatility and reduced risk appetite.
The $65,000 Level as the Key Benchmark of the Week
The combined data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant describes a market that has gone through capitulation but has not yet restored steady demand. The acute phase is over — short-term holders’ losses have halved, and inflow to exchanges is down threefold from the peak.
But structural pressure remains. Whales continue to distribute positions, buying liquidity is tight, and the $65,000 level is holding only as a technical benchmark without confirmation from demand. If buyers do not become active in the coming days, the bottom accumulation phase risks dragging on.
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