Bernstein analysts believe that bitcoin could rise again to $125,000 by the end of 2026. They cite demand from large investors and funds, who continue to build reserves in the leading cryptocurrency, as the main support for the price.
Bitcoin remains the key asset of the crypto market: it is a cryptocurrency and payment system based on blockchain, operating through a peer-to-peer network rather than the logic of a typical bank transaction. The bitcoin network was launched in 2009, and its creator is considered to be Satoshi Nakamoto. The project’s idea is to transfer value directly between users, without a bank intermediary.
Transactions in the network are collected into blocks, blocks are built into a common chain, and network participants verify the same transaction history. Miners add new blocks, confirm transactions, maintain network security, and receive rewards in BTC.
The maximum bitcoin issuance is limited to 21 million BTC. It can usually be bought or sold through crypto exchanges, exchangers, and P2P platforms, and stored in hot or cold wallets. The main risks include sharp price fluctuations, regulatory decisions, cyber threats, and loss of access to the wallet. Volatility is amplified by limited issuance, speculative demand, news, and regulatory decisions.
Why Bernstein Expects the End of the Bear Phase
In the last ten days, bitcoin has gained about 28%. The growth began after the price previously fell by almost 50% from the all-time high reached in October last year. Bernstein considers such a rebound a sign that the market may have passed the bottom of the current bear phase.
Analysts note that the current decline has been noticeably milder than in previous cycles. Previously, the leading cryptocurrency lost 75–90% after peaks, but now the depth of the fall was less. One explanation is the more active participation of large players who use dips to accumulate bitcoin.
Bernstein Forecasts Through 2029
Bernstein’s scenarios look like this:
- Base scenario: by mid-2027 — $150,000, by 2029 — about $300,000.
- Stronger scenario: by mid-2027 — $200,000, by 2029 — about $500,000.
Bernstein’s calculations are based on bitcoin’s four-year cycles, which are linked to halvings. The company identifies four phases of such a cycle:
- Breakout
- Frenzy
- Decline
- Accumulation
An additional benchmark is the ratio of bitcoin’s market price to the marginal cost of mining.
“We assume that the price-to-marginal-cost ratio will behave similarly to previous four-year cycles,” Bernstein experts said.
What This Means for Strategy
The growth of the crypto market, according to Bernstein, could improve the position of Strategy — the largest public company among corporate bitcoin holders. The maximum bitcoin issuance is limited to 21 million BTC; 840,447 BTC on Strategy’s balance sheet is about 4% of this limit.
If bitcoin continues to rise in price and STRC preferred shares recover to about $100, Strategy will be able to resume increasing its cryptocurrency reserves. Since the beginning of the year, the company, according to analysts, has sold about 7,000 BTC.
Earlier, Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, also allowed for bitcoin to rise to $100,000 by the end of the year. One of the key factors he cited was increased available liquidity in the US government bond market.
