Bitcoin fell below $75,000 after the release of the FOMC minutes, where the US Federal Reserve confirmed it would keep interest rates unchanged and noted rising uncertainty amid inflation and the conflict with Iran.
BTC continued to decline for the second day in a row after the Fed decided to keep the target rate range at 3.5 – 3.75%.
At the same time, the regulator remains focused on achieving maximum employment and inflation at 2% in the long term. The minutes specifically highlight events in the Middle East as a factor increasing uncertainty. The Fed emphasized that it maintains flexibility in decision-making, assessing risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
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The decision to hold rates matched market expectations, but during Jerome Powell’s press conference, bitcoin remained under pressure.
Hyblock CEO Shubh Varma described the price movement as a typical sell the news reaction after the FOMC meeting, but noted that the market quickly recovered:
«The price quickly returned to pre-announcement levels, indicating strong underlying support.»
He also provided data to support this trend:
«The global bid ratio rose to 0.3, one of the highest levels, while open interest fell as the price dropped. This is classic position closing after the FOMC and stop-loss triggering, not panic selling.»
BTC/USDT bid/ask ratio. Source: Hyblock
Will Support Turn Into Resistance?
After the release of the FOMC minutes, bitcoin dropped to an intraday low of $74,937, slightly breaking the 20-day moving average at $75,664. Many traders viewed this level as key for confirming a shift from support to resistance.
As noted earlier, after the price broke above the channel boundary on the daily chart, BTC needed to consolidate above the trendline. The next step is to retest the level as support in the $76,500 – $75,500 range.
BTC/USDT daily timeframe chart. Source: TradingView
Despite meeting these conditions, the inability to consolidate above the 20-day moving average and break through trend resistance may indicate weakening bullish momentum. In this case, the likelihood of a decline to the lower boundary of the channel, which has been forming for almost four months, increases.
Even before Powell’s speech, Glassnode analysts noted growing bearish sentiment. According to their data, traders were increasing leverage on shorts: open interest rose after the rally to $79,000 on Tuesday, funding rates remained neutral, and a divergence was observed between the spot and futures markets in cumulative volume delta (CVD).
Bearish sentiment among bitcoin traders ahead of the FOMC minutes release. Source: Glassnode / X
Additional analysis from the The Week Onchain report by Glassnode shows that the bitcoin price remains “trapped below the market average.” Support is forming in the $65,000 – $70,000 range, but weak demand is preventing the market from developing a sustainable upward move.
According to the report, BTC failed to consolidate above the True Market Mean at $79,000. Pressure also increased due to profit-taking by short-term holders and the margin futures market turning net short, which weakened the short-term bullish momentum.
BTC short-term holders’ realized profit. Source: Glassnode
Although these factors increase bitcoin’s sensitivity to a sharper decline, analysts also note an opposite signal. Institutional capital flows into spot BTC—ETF, as well as rising open interest on CME helped form a dense accumulation zone in the $65,000 – $70,000 range.
Open interest on CME and US spot BTC-ETF position change. Source: Glassnode
