The cryptocurrency market continues to face sustained pressure from large investors. According to analyst Jordi Visser, today’s market behavior is reminiscent of the period after the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s. Back then, tech company stocks fell by 80%, and it took nearly 16 years to return to previous highs.
Investors ‘offload’ at every rally
Visser notes that whales and long-term holders continue to sell assets at every pullback, preventing the market from forming a full-fledged bullish impulse. According to him, this is similar to the post-dot-com crash situation, when venture investors and insiders were forced to sell shares immediately after lock-up periods ended.
‘Many stocks were then trading below their offering prices. Today we see the same thing. Insiders and venture funds in need of liquidity are selling at every rally — whether it’s Solana, Ethereum, or even Bitcoin,’ Visser noted.
Such behavior, in his opinion, does not indicate the start of a prolonged bear cycle, but points to the final stage of consolidation, which may last about another year.
Parallels with the dot-coms
It took the US stock market about 16 years to recover to previous highs, as large investors constantly sold assets, restraining growth.
After the 2000 crash, the US stock market went through 16 years of recovery. The main reason for the slow growth was the massive sell-off by large investors, who were locking in losses and restoring liquidity balance. Similar processes are happening today in the crypto industry.
Analysts note that in the long run, this is a natural cycle, when early participants take profits, and new investors have not yet provided enough demand to absorb the growing supply.
Pressure from whales
Long-term bitcoin holders are now dumping coins onto the market faster than it can absorb the supply.
According to CryptoQuant, the volume of sales from long-term bitcoin holders has noticeably increased since October.
Analyst Julio Moreno explained that the exit of whales itself is not a problem — it only becomes a price-reducing factor when there is insufficient demand.
‘Since October, sales by long-term holders have intensified. This is not news, but demand is shrinking and cannot absorb the entire supply at current prices,’ Moreno noted.
Thus, the market is facing a classic imbalance: supply is growing faster than the influx of new buyers. Until this gap is closed, the price of bitcoin will remain under pressure.
Where is bitcoin’s bottom?
Despite the wave of sales, some analysts believe that bitcoin is close to a local bottom. The BTC price has stabilized around $100,000, and this level has served as support for several weeks. However, if sales intensify, a drop to $92,000 remains a likely scenario.
Moreno believes that the current phase resembles a transitional period between cycles: old holders are leaving the market, while new capital has not yet entered. When the balance of supply and demand is restored, bitcoin will be able to start a new phase of growth.
What’s next?
The scenario described by Visser does not necessarily predict a repeat of the 16-year consolidation after the dot-coms. Rather, it indicates that the market is approaching the end of the capitulation phase, after which recovery begins.
If pressure from whales eases and institutional demand via ETFs continues to grow, bitcoin could return to a sustainable uptrend as early as 2025. For this, the market needs not euphoria, but a new influx of liquidity and confidence in future growth.
Read more: Bitcoin is approaching $110,000: four events in the US that will determine market movement
