The bitcoin market is approaching one of the largest expirations in recent months in a tense state. The price of BTC has dropped below $74,000, giving sellers a noticeable advantage ahead of settlements on options totaling about $9 billion. Against this backdrop, market participants are increasingly discussing the likelihood of a new decline toward the psychological level of $70,000.
Pressure is mounting from several directions at once. Investors continue to withdraw funds from spot bitcoin ETFs, companies are reducing BTC reserves on their balances, and the derivatives market is showing increased caution among traders.
Bears Approach Expiry in a Stronger Position
On Friday, open interest in bitcoin call options (buy) appeared on Deribit, BTC.
On May 29, the market will see the monthly expiration of bitcoin options, a significant portion of which is concentrated on the Deribit exchange. The total open interest in contracts exceeds $6 billion on this platform alone.
On Friday, open interest in bitcoin put options (sell) appeared on Deribit (BTC).
The problem for buyers is that the drop below $78,000, which began in mid-May, has significantly changed the balance of power. If BTC remains below $74,000 at settlement, a significant portion of call options will lose value.
Ratio of bitcoin put and call option volumes, US dollars
In this scenario, contracts to buy worth about $306 million will remain in the money. By comparison, put options with settlement levels from $74,000 and above are valued at more than $1 billion. The difference shows that the current market structure is noticeably more favorable for sellers.
Deribit, June 26: bitcoin options prices
Even if bitcoin manages to return above $74,000 before expiry, the advantage will still remain with the bears.
Liquidations Increase Nervousness
An additional blow to sentiment was the recent drop to $72,500. During the downward move, the market lost about $342 million in leveraged long positions.
Such liquidations usually increase short-term pressure. Traders who were counting on growth are forced to close positions, and some participants prefer to temporarily move into cash or stablecoins.
After a rebound to $73,500, the situation has stabilized somewhat, but buyers have not yet regained control of the market.
ETFs Continue to Lose Capital
The situation around US spot ETFs also remains a serious factor. In recent days, investors have withdrawn more than $1 billion from bitcoin funds. Such outflows do not always mean a continued decline, but they do indicate reduced interest from major market participants.
It is especially important that the reduction in capital inflows is happening just as bitcoin is trying to stay above key technical levels. The market is effectively losing one of its main sources of fresh liquidity.
Companies Begin to Reduce BTC Reserves
Another worrying signal has been the actions of corporate bitcoin holders. French company Sequans Communications announced plans to fully sell its BTC reserves and abandon its accumulation strategy. At the same time, some public miners and a number of other companies have also reduced the share of the first cryptocurrency on their balances.
So far, this is not a mass sell-off of corporate reserves, but the very fact that such decisions are emerging increases caution among investors.
Market Does Not Believe in a Quick Return to $80,000
Sentiment in the June options market also looks quite restrained. The price of contracts shows that traders estimate the probability of BTC rising above $80,000 by the end of June at about 18%. This suggests that most participants do not expect a quick recovery after the May correction.
Such an assessment is especially telling given that just a few months ago the market was actively discussing a move to new all-time highs. Now, investors’ attention has shifted to capital protection and liquidity preservation.
What’s Next?
The coming days could be decisive for bitcoin’s short-term trend. The expiration of large options positions could increase volatility, and the current positioning of contracts favors sellers.
As long as BTC remains below $74,000, the advantage stays with the bears. Additional pressure is created by ETF outflows, reduced corporate reserves, and weak demand for upside in options.
If buyers fail to quickly push the price back above key levels, the market may once again test the $70,000 area. For bitcoin to return to a confident upward scenario, it needs not only to hold current support levels but also to restore interest from institutional investors.
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