Key Points:
- The truce between the US and Iran supported the stock market and Bitcoin, but BTC derivatives show there is not yet a confident bullish impulse.
- Legislative issues and the ‘fragile truce’ continue to keep bears in the game. The market is still discussing a possible correction to $68,000.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin rose by 6% in less than four hours. The rise followed global stock markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week truce. The move caught traders off guard and led to liquidations of $280 million in the futures market.
If the conflict really subsides, it may become harder for Bitcoin bears. But derivatives on BTC show that sustained growth above $80,000 may take longer than market participants expect.
S&P 500 futures and BTC/USD. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin’s high correlation with S&P 500 futures indicates that BTC growth is largely tied to expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump stated that Iran’s nuclear program would be halted in exchange for easing tariffs and sanctions.
However, market sentiment quickly worsened after a statement by US Vice President J.D. Vance, who called the truce with Iran ‘fragile.’
Inflation Pressure and Weak Signals From the Derivatives Market
If market tensions really ease, this could lead to lower oil prices and reduced inflationary pressure. In that case, regulators would have more room to ease policy.
For now, the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, despite signs of a cooling labor market. At the same time, some traders who previously exited risk assets have started to return after fears of serious economic consequences subsided.
Although $280 million in short liquidations accelerated Bitcoin’s growth, derivatives themselves do not show a sharp change in sentiment.
Aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures. Source: Coinglass
By Wednesday, aggregate open interest in futures reached 593,930 BTC, up about 2.5% in 24 hours. At the same time, liquidations of $200–300 million occur regularly and have already been seen several times in the past three months. Against the total position volume of $42 billion , the current $280 million looks insignificant.
Annualized premium on two-month Bitcoin futures. Source: Laevitas
The futures premium to spot remains at about 3% and has hardly changed in recent days. This is below the neutral level of 4%, indicating weak demand for longs since the end of January.
Put-to-call ratio for Bitcoin options. Source: Laevitas
Over the past two weeks, demand for downside protection remains higher. Put option premiums exceed call, although they no longer reach the panic levels seen at the end of March.
Can Regulation Stop Bitcoin’s Growth
Bullish confidence in Bitcoin was shaken after the sharp crash on October 10, 2025. Pressure increased due to disappointment in regulation and lack of progress in creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US.
The latest version of the PARITY Act did not include tax breaks for small payments in BTC and did not resolve the issue of deferred mining taxes. An additional blow was the departure of David Sacks from the post of White House advisor on AI and crypto on March 26.
Although US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in 2025 repeatedly spoke of ‘budget-neutral’ ways to buy Bitcoin without raising taxes, no concrete plan has emerged.
See Also: ZEC Rose 30% After the Truce. The Market Sees a Risk of Pullback
Meanwhile, Democrats are demanding an investigation into crypto projects linked to the Trump family due to possible conflicts of interest.
Despite the recent rise, bears are in no hurry to close shorts. Inflationary pressure persists. Brent oil is holding around $95 per barrel versus $72 at the end of February.
At the same time, the two-week truce is hardly a long-term solution. The risk of a pullback to $68,000 remains.
Why the Market Still Does Not Believe in Sustainable Growth
Despite the sharp rebound, the market structure remains fragile. The rise was largely driven by short liquidations, not an influx of new capital. This means the momentum could quickly fade if no additional drivers emerge.
Macroeconomics adds separate pressure. Inflation remains high, and the Fed is not signaling a policy easing. Against this backdrop, investors continue to approach risk assets, including Bitcoin, with caution.
See Also: Bitcoin Loses Gains After Truce. Geopolitics Pressures the Market Again
Politics also adds uncertainty. Regulatory questions in the US remain open, and the geopolitical situation around Iran is far from stable. Even the current truce is seen by the market more as a temporary pause.
As long as BTC holds above key levels, the growth scenario remains. But without strong fundamental factors, the market may return to a range or test lower levels again.
