Bitcoin surged sharply after Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping.
The BTC price hit its highest since February, oil prices fell, the US stock market set another record, and the yield on 10-year government bonds dropped to 4.24%. But there is a nuance. The markets behaved as if the opening of the strait had already resolved the main conflict between Washington and Tehran.
If you dig deeper, things are not so clear-cut. The opening is temporary, the blockade remains, demining operations continue, and it is still unclear what exactly Iran has agreed to.
Bitcoin, oil, and SPY over the past 6 months. Source: TradingView
And this becomes especially important ahead of the weekend. US stocks, bonds, and most markets close after Friday, but bitcoin keeps trading.
As a result, BTC again becomes the first major liquid market to show whether Friday’s rally was based on real progress or just a reaction to the news.
Statements from Washington also leave room for a reversal. Trump told Axios he expects a deal “within a day or two.” At the same time, the same report said that an option is being discussed in which the US could unfreeze $20 billion in Iranian assets in exchange for Tehran giving up enriched uranium.
The Washington Post reports that Iran did not confirm Trump’s statement about handing over so-called “nuclear dust.” Moreover, the publication notes that previous US statements about agreements with Iran have already turned out to be inaccurate or never materialized.
The Deal Version Is Already Falling Apart
Tehran’s public position is noticeably different from the picture that calmed the markets. In a live blog by Al Jazeera Foreign Ministry representative Esmail Baghaei said Iran does not intend to hand over enriched uranium to the US and called Washington’s statements on the Strait of Hormuz contradictory.
Earlier, on April 15, the Tasnim agency wrote that Baghaei continues to insist on uranium enrichment as a sovereign right that is not up for discussion.
The gap between traders’ expectations and actual agreements remains significant. Friday’s rally made sense as a reaction to easing tensions. An open Strait of Hormuz reduces risks for the oil market.
But it’s too early to say that the key issues are close to being resolved. We’re talking about uranium, possible compensation, and a truce in Lebanon. That’s still a long way off, and it’s becoming harder to ignore this gap.
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Trump stated that the US blockade of Iranian ships and ports will remain until Tehran reaches an agreement with Washington, including on nuclear program issues.
So, the strait is formally open to some ships, but the main restrictions have not disappeared.
This is the backdrop as the market heads into the weekend. Oil closed lower, stocks hit new highs, investors became more confident, but the story behind this rally remains shaky.
During this conflict, optimism has repeatedly been replaced by doubt. Now the main question is whether this rally can hold.
Shipping and Oil Revive, but Normalization Is Still Far Off
The real market is still signaling caution. Back on April 11, CENTCOM reported that the US was preparing to clear mines from the strait and was moving additional equipment and underwater drones.
If the market truly believed the situation had normalized, participants would not be watching demining updates so closely, and shipping companies would not be acting with such caution.
The previous truce window showed how slowly movement is recovering. On Wednesday, only five ships passed through the strait, seven on Thursday, while more than 600 ships, including 325 tankers, remained in the Persian Gulf. The daily flow held at 10–15 ships compared to 120–140 before the conflict.
Late Friday data did not change the picture much. According to Kpler, even in the evening, ship movement remained limited and was going through agreed corridors, despite statements about a full opening. They estimate that a return to normal could take months, not weeks.
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Maersk had also previously warned that even amid truce news, it is too early to talk about stable operations. Each decision to pass is made individually and with risks.
That is why Friday’s drop in oil looks logical, but remains fragile. US oil closed at $82.59, Brent — $90.38. This is a noticeable pullback after the tensions at the start of the month.
But prices are still above pre-conflict levels, and this does not mean that shipping has fully recovered or that the risk premium has disappeared.
There is also a second important factor — interest rates. The drop in oil helped bring the yield on 10-year US bonds down to 4.24%, slightly easing pressure ahead of the weekend.
If energy shocks continue, the next wave of market reaction could show up not only in oil but also in government bond yields.
And this is still important. If oil starts rising again over the weekend, by Monday the market will return to discussing inflation and liquidity.
Bitcoin Becomes the Main Weekend Test
Bitcoin has found itself at the center of this entire situation. It keeps trading while stocks and bonds are already closed, and most markets are waiting for Monday.
As a result, BTC becomes the first place where traders will show whether they believe Friday’s news was real progress or just a pause amid conflicting signals. This is especially important given current market positions.
Friday’s rally was largely driven by short liquidations and a shift to more bullish bets. Such moves can continue if the news backdrop is confirmed, but can just as quickly reverse if expectations are not met.
Weekend Triggers and Possible BTC Reaction
If Tehran again states that it does not intend to hand over uranium, or talks start to stall, it will signal that the market believed in progress too quickly. In this case, BTC could roll back to around $73K.
If the truce in Lebanon holds and ship movement starts to gradually recover, the market will have a reason to continue easing tensions. Then bitcoin could consolidate in the middle of the $70K range and try to reach resistance around $79K.
But if new incidents occur at sea, shipping slows, or another escalation begins, risks will again come to the fore. In this scenario, BTC will become the first stress indicator and could quickly drop to $70K.
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The positive scenario for the weekend looks quite simple. If there is no new military escalation, if rhetoric between Tehran and Washington does not worsen, and ship movement starts to go beyond the controlled corridors described by Kpler, bitcoin may continue to act as an asset amid easing tensions.
In this case, Friday’s rally will turn out to be not just a short-term reaction, but the start of a more sustainable move.
The negative scenario is also obvious. If Iran’s position shifts from denial to an actual breakdown of talks, or the truce in Lebanon starts to collapse, the entire logic of risk reduction that the market relied on will be in question.
Then bitcoin will remain the only major asset trading over the weekend and will be the first to reflect a possible shift in sentiment.
Yes, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced tensions, but that does not mean the key disagreements between the US and Iran are resolved.
Bitcoin heads into the weekend of April 18–19 as the main indicator of unresolved macro risks. The real signal will not come from the news backdrop, but from what happens next at sea, in negotiations, and in the oil market.
