The Bitcoin market is experiencing its toughest month of the year, but Coinglass data reveals a surprising detail. None of the 30 indicators that track market top conditions have been triggered so far.
Bull market peak indicators
Even after Bitcoin plunged more than 30% from its October high, the market is far from the classic euphoria typical of the final phases of bull cycles.
Coinglass has updated the indicator dashboard: the status remains “0 out of 30”. To confirm a peak formation, at least 15 signals must be triggered. Currently, the average stage of progress is only 43.84%. Far from the danger zone.
Indicators are close but have not reached key values
Despite zero confirmed signals, several metrics are approaching critical levels. The closest is the share of Bitcoin supply held by short-term holders. The figure has risen to 29.37% with a threshold of 30%. That is 97.9% progress—one step from activation.
Next is the supply held by long-term holders. It currently stands at 14.09 million BTC. To confirm a market peak, this figure should fall to 13.5 million BTC. The share of long-term investors always decreases at the top, as they distribute coins amid rising prices. Progress is now close to 96%.
The third metric is Bitcoin dominance. It has risen to 58.16%. Historical peaks were in the 65% range, indicating movement in that direction but without reaching the threshold. The Bitcoin trend index is also approaching the activation zone. The current value is 6.14, with a required level of 7. Progress is 87.7%.
At the same time, some indicators are not even close to overheating signals. For example, the AHR999 Top Escape Indicator is at 5.64—far from a potential top. Progress is less than 8%. The Bitcoin bubble index is only 9.98 out of 80, indicating a complete lack of market mania.
ETFs record outflows, indicating investor caution
Amid the price drop, Bitcoin is holding around $87,800, bouncing off a low of $82,000. This level has again become psychological support. However, ETF inflows remain a weak link. Over the past month, spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost $3.5 billion. In just one trading session on Monday, investors withdrew $151 million.
Interestingly, against this backdrop, Ethereum and Solana are showing the opposite picture. ETH ETFs attracted $97 million, and SOL ETFs $58 million. This does not turn the market around, but signals a shift in preferences among institutions.
CoinShares notes that over the past week, sector funds lost $1.9 billion. This is the third worst result since 2018. Institutional caution is growing.
Analysts compare the market to 2021
According to analyst Merlijn The Trader, Bitcoin’s movement resembles the pattern of 2021. Back then, the price also held at major support before breaking down. Now the market is again testing the base around $82,000.
The analyst says bluntly: if the downtrend breaks, the market will instantly switch to bull mode. Ethereum is seeing active two-way trading. Buyers are supporting the $2,790–$2,800 range, while sellers are defending the $2,820–$2,835 level. The balance of power remains fragile.
On-chain data shows that large ETH holders (10,000–100,000 coins) have increased their cumulative volume to 21 million ETH. This is helping the second cryptocurrency recover after a sharp decline.
XRP and ETFs deliver an unexpected surprise
XRP also received a boost after the launch of new ETFs from Franklin Templeton and Grayscale. Net inflows exceeded $600 million in less than two weeks. This sharply improved short-term dynamics: XRP rose 7% in a day, but then pulled back from $2.25 to $2.21. Institutional investors are not yet ready to take risks in Bitcoin, but are actively choosing other directions.
The market is far from the top: what does it mean
Coinglass data is unambiguous. The market is not overheated. There are no signs of mass euphoria. There are no extreme values in key indicators.
Yes, selling by large holders and pressure from ETFs are creating local corrections. But the structures typical for the final stage of a bull market are absent. For many analysts, this is the main confirmation: despite a 30% drop, Bitcoin has not yet completed its cycle.
Read more: XRP loses liquidity after whale sell-offs and a drop in open interest
