The American regulator has launched an investigation into suspicious trades in the oil market. The issue concerns positions opened shortly before Donald Trump’s statements about negotiations with Iran.
According to the investigation, traders made large bets on price declines literally minutes before the announcements. This raised questions among lawmakers and increased pressure on the regulator.
Large Bets Ahead of News
On March 23, between 6:49 and 6:50 a.m. New York time, trades worth between $500 million and $580 million appeared on the market. These were futures for Brent and WTI oil.
This happened about 15 minutes before Donald Trump announced progress in negotiations with Iran. After the announcement, oil prices dropped sharply. Those who opened short positions made a profit. Attention was drawn not only to the fact of the trades but also to their volume.
Volumes Were Outside the Norm
Activity at that moment was abnormal. Trading volume was about nine times higher than the average for that time of day.
At the same time, there was no news or macroeconomic factor that could explain the movement in the market. This increased suspicions. Analysts immediately noted the timing. The situation was called one of the most precisely calculated trades of the year.
Repeat Scenario Raised More Questions
A similar picture was observed on April 7. A few hours before the announcement of a two-week truce with Iran, bets on price declines totaling nearly $950 million entered the market.
After the announcement, oil fell by about 15%. This again brought profits to those who had taken the right position in advance. The repetition increased regulators’ interest. The coincidence began to look less likely.
Pressure From Politicians Is Growing
Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse sent an official letter to the head of the CFTC on April 9. They pointed to a systemic problem of possible use of confidential information.
The letter refers to a violation of the Commodity Exchange Act. Lawmakers demand to find out whether nonpublic government data was used. Separately, Congressman Ritchie Torres called for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to join the investigation.
The White House Denies Allegations
The U.S. administration denies involvement in possible violations. White House representatives called the allegations unfounded.
Nevertheless, pressure on regulators remains. The political component increases the significance of the investigation.
The Regulator Has Tools
The CFTC has the ability to analyze such situations. The regulator can track trades and request data on traders.
If necessary, the commission has the right to demand documents and disclosure of information through judicial mechanisms. However, such investigations take time. The review may take weeks or months.
The Market Remains at Risk
The oil market continues to react to statements about Iran. Any new announcements can cause sharp price movements.
Against this backdrop, attention to trading activity before announcements is increasing. Market participants are starting to consider not only the news itself but also behavior before it.
What This Means for Markets
The situation raises a broader issue. It is about trust in markets and equal access to information.
If suspicions are confirmed, the consequences could be serious. Oversight will increase, and trading rules may be tightened. For markets, this is a factor of uncertainty. It affects not only oil but also other assets, including digital ones.
What’s Next?
The investigation has only just begun. The specific participants in the trades have not yet been named, and no charges have been filed. The market will be watching the results. Any conclusions by the CFTC could set a new standard for monitoring news-based trading.
For now, the key risk remains the same. Any statements about Iran could again change prices and draw attention to those acting in advance.
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