The CLARITY Act, which is supposed to establish basic rules for the digital asset market in the US, is entering its most dangerous stage. April is essentially lost for the bill, and the window for progress has now shifted to May. Even supporters of the document admit: if the Senate does not move it to the next stage by July, the chances of passage in 2026 will sharply decrease.
The problem is that it is not the main idea of the law that is stalling it, but the dispute over stablecoin rewards. This issue has been eating up the Senate calendar for several months, even though earlier disagreements over DeFi protections have reportedly mostly been resolved. Now, the market is not stuck on the concept of the law, but on whether lawmakers will have enough time and political will to push through the last contentious points.
April Is Almost Closed for the Clarity Act
Not long ago, negotiators hoped to advance the bill in April. Now, that goal appears to have been derailed. According to CoinDesk, key Republican negotiator Thom Tillis continues consultations with the banking sector on the topic of stablecoin rewards, and this is essentially what is pushing the discussion into May.
This is important not just as a calendar delay. For the CLARITY Act, every week has now become strategic. The bill not only needs to pass the Senate Banking Committee, but also make it through further approvals before Congress fully enters election mode.
The Main Obstacle Is Stablecoin Rewards
The most toxic dispute now is whether to allow stablecoin reward programs and in what form. Banks have long insisted that such mechanisms are too close to deposit products and could hurt their business model if crypto companies are allowed to pay clients yields without comparable banking regulation. This dispute has been dragging on since the beginning of the year and is essentially what has delayed the entire market structure package.
At the same time, the industry believes a compromise is close. According to several publications, a model is being discussed in the Senate that would prohibit yield where the product starts to resemble a bank deposit, but would allow for softer forms of incentives, more like bonuses or loyalty schemes.
Even With a Compromise, the Bill Faces a Long Chain of Approvals
Even if the Senate Banking Committee does move the CLARITY Act forward in May, that will only be the first major victory, not the end. The text will still need to be reconciled with the version that passed the Senate Agriculture Committee, and then refined for a final political compromise. According to sources, it is this buffer of time that is now being eaten up by the prolonged dispute.
In addition, the law may still have additional politically sensitive blocks added. Among them are ethics provisions that Democrats want to use to limit the benefits of high-ranking officials from crypto interests, as well as issues of fully staffing the commissions overseeing the markets. These topics will not necessarily kill the bill, but they raise the cost of any new delay.
The Senate Calendar Is Becoming the Main Risk
The most dangerous factor now is not any one specific dispute, but a lack of time. Before the August recess, the Senate has a limited number of working weeks left, and the agenda already includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security, the conflict with Iran, disputes over election law, and personnel issues such as the nomination of Kevin Warsh to the Fed. The CLARITY Act will have to compete with these topics for a spot on the schedule.
This explains why analysts estimate the likelihood of the law passing in 2026 at only about 50-50 or even lower. Their logic is simple: the problem is not one unresolved issue, but that too many steps must be completed sequentially and without new setbacks—under tough calendar pressure.
May Is the Last Comfortable Chance, July Is the Deadline
The working framework now looks like this: a May markup in the Banking Committee keeps the bill in play, but further delays already put it at risk. Completing key procedures by July looks like a critical condition if supporters of the CLARITY Act want to get it passed before the elections. After that, the window narrows sharply.
It is important here not to confuse the formal and real deadline. Formally, the bill can live until the end of the year. In reality, after the summer, Congress sinks deeper into campaigning before the November midterm elections, and the political cost of any complex crypto compromise starts to rise. That is why the market sees May and July as the last relatively convenient points for progress.
Why the Industry Still Does Not See the Bill as Lost
Despite the tough calendar, market participants are not yet writing off the CLARITY Act. First, according to sources, the list of contentious issues has really narrowed. Second, the industry has already invested too much political capital in this law to calmly watch it fade away. Lobbyists and industry associations continue to pressure the Senate with the argument that failure at this stage will no longer be about substance, but about inaction.
In addition, the sector is playing the long game. Crypto PACs have already spent millions of dollars to form a friendlier Congress, on both sides of the party line. So even if the law does not pass quickly, the industry is not planning to walk away from the fight. But that does not change the fact that 2026 remains the most convenient moment for passage right now.
The Clarity Act Still Has an Emergency Scenario, but It Is Weak
Even if the summer window is missed, the bill theoretically still has a backup path—the so-called lame duck session after the November elections. This is the period when the outgoing Congress can still make decisions. Several industry sources have already suggested that if the CLARITY Act fails on the main track, they might try to bring it back then.
But this is already a low-probability scenario. It depends on too many external factors and does not look comfortable for the industry. That is why the current two-week delay is perceived so painfully: it does not kill the bill right now, but it eats up the very buffer that still allowed for a calm path forward.
What This Means for the Market
For the crypto market, the situation around the CLARITY Act is important not only from a regulatory perspective. It shows how much the fate of the industry in the US still depends on the details of the political process. Formally, the law is close to a compromise. In practice, it could still drown in the calendar.
That is why investors and industry players are now looking not so much at the idea of the law as at the next two steps: whether there will be a committee in May and whether the Senate will manage to bring the document to the floor by July. If the answer to even one of these questions is negative, the market will start to assess not just a delay, but the real risk of postponing the entire reform to a later and politically less convenient cycle.
What Is Next?
The next marker is the publication of the text and the scheduling of a markup in the Senate Banking Committee. This is the action without which all talk of “closeness to compromise” will remain just background noise. If the Senate does move the bill in May, the chance to keep the trajectory to July remains.
But if the negotiations on rewards explode again or drag on for several more weeks, the CLARITY Act risks entering a zone where even a good text will not save a bad calendar. And then the main problem for the crypto industry in Washington will not be a dispute over rules, but that there is simply no time left for them.
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