Ethereum starts July in a weak position. The ETH price is holding around $1,570, not far from multi-month lows, and the market is seeing a series of three consecutive red quarters for the asset for the first time.
The picture is mixed. On one hand, network activity is falling and the chart remains under pressure. On the other, large holders began increasing their positions at the end of June. Therefore, July could be the month that determines whether this was an accumulation phase or preparation for a new drop.
The Network Shows Fatigue
The main warning signal does not come from the chart, but from on-chain data. According to Glassnode, the 14-day average of active Ethereum addresses rose to about 795,000 in early February.
Now the figure has dropped to about 420,000. This is a decline of about 46%, indicating weak user demand.
This is especially important for Ethereum. ETH is valued not only as an exchange asset, but also as fuel for the network. If activity decreases, investors begin to doubt the strength of fundamental demand.
Early Spike Did Not Become Sustained Growth
At the beginning of the year, active addresses were growing even as the price was already falling. This gap looked unusual and resembled speculative activity more than stable network expansion.
Later, both indicators went down. Brief spikes in March, April, and May did not hold.
June was the weakest segment on the chart. There is still no sign that activity has found a bottom. For a reversal, Ethereum needs not a one-off spike but a series of weeks with sustained address recovery.
Whales Buy the Weakness
Against the backdrop of poor network statistics, another signal appears. The number of addresses with a balance from 1,000 to 10,000 ETH sharply increased in the last days of June.
This happened exactly when the price was near the lows. Such behavior may indicate that large participants are starting to build a position in advance.
But this signal should not be read too literally. In February, a similar increase in the number of large addresses coincided not with a bottom, but with a local top. Therefore, whale accumulation is an argument for cautious optimism, but not a guarantee of a reversal.
ETF Flows Do Not Confirm Strong Demand
External flows also present a mixed picture. Some data points to ETH purchases by large wallets, but spot Ethereum ETFs saw outflows in June.
This is an important divergence. Private large holders may be buying the dip, but institutional products have not yet shown the same confident demand.
Part of the pressure may have been related to the end of the quarter and fund actions. However, the fact remains: Ethereum enters July without strong support from ETF flows.
Three Red Quarters in a Row Become a New Signal
ETH weakness has already gone beyond the usual monthly correction. According to CoinGlass, Q4 2025 closed down 28.28%, Q1 2026 down 29.26%, and Q2 down 24.77%.
This is an unusual series for Ethereum. In the available history since 2016, the asset has not previously closed three consecutive quarters in the red.
It is also important how the decline occurred. It was not a single sharp collapse, but a prolonged, steady price erosion. This type of movement is often psychologically harder for the market: buyers get tired, and each rebound quickly loses strength.
The $1,500 Level Becomes July’s Boundary
The main zone for the coming weeks is $1,500. As long as ETH stays above it, buyers have a chance to attempt a recovery.
If this level is lost, the market will start to look lower—first to the $1,200 area, then to deeper historical benchmarks.
Currently, the price is already below the important zone around $1,753. This level coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement from the $881–$4,956 move and previously acted as support several times.
A Return Above $1,753 Changes the Scenario
For bulls, the nearest task is clear: reclaim $1,753. As long as ETH trades below it, this level turns from support into resistance.
If the price can consolidate above, the bearish scenario will weaken. Then the market will start to view the drop to $1,500 as a false breakout or the final phase of the sell-off.
If the monthly close is below $1,753, it will confirm the breakdown of the long-term zone. In that case, the risk of a move to $1,200 becomes much higher.
The Daily Chart Remains Under Pressure
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The short-term picture also does not look strong. Ethereum has lost several support levels: around $2,375, $2,175, and $1,925. Now these zones may act as resistance on any rebound.
In addition, the price fell below the descending channel and failed twice to return in June. This shows that sellers still control the structure.
Volumes decreased during the decline, and the width of the Bollinger Bands compressed. Usually, such compression indicates preparation for a strong move. But it does not indicate which direction the breakout will be.
Why July Could Be Sharp
The market has reached a zone where several factors have compressed at once: weak activity, large purchases, low volatility, and important support.
Such a mix often ends with a quick move. If ETH holds $1,500 and recaptures $1,753, the rebound could be sharp because some sellers will start closing positions.
If $1,500 does not hold, the drop could also accelerate. Then the market will get confirmation that whale accumulation could not stop the trend.
What Could Help Ethereum
Several signals are needed at once for a sustainable ETH recovery.
- First—a rise in active addresses that lasts not just a few days but several weeks.
- Second—an improvement in ETF flows or at least a halt to outflows. This will show that institutional demand has stopped putting pressure on the price.
- Third—a technical return above $1,753. Without it, any rebounds will look like moves within a weak market.
What Could Intensify the Decline
The main risk is a break below $1,500 on a daily or weekly close. Then ETH will lose the last psychological level before a deeper demand zone.
An additional negative would be a continued decline in network activity. If addresses keep setting new lows, the argument for fundamental demand will become even weaker.
It is also important to watch the behavior of large wallets. If the growth in large wallet addresses quickly stops or reverses, the market may see this as a failed accumulation attempt.
What’s Next?
Ethereum enters July without a clear advantage for buyers or sellers. The trend and network activity argue for caution. The behavior of large holders and compressed volatility leave a chance for a sharp rebound.
The key levels are simple: $1,500 below and $1,753 above. Holding the first zone preserves the recovery scenario. Regaining the second will give the market a stronger signal. Losing $1,500 opens the way to $1,200.
The main conclusion is simple. July for ETH will not be a month of calm sideways movement, but a test of trust in the asset. Ethereum needs to prove that large purchases at the low are more important than falling network activity. Until that happens, the market remains in a waiting mode for a strong move.
Read more: Citi Lowers Targets for Bitcoin: Citigroup Cuts Forecast Due to ETF Outflows
