Institutional investors are once again turning their attention to Ethereum. In recent months, spot market activity has increased by 52%, and whales have added more than 7.6 million ETH to their portfolios. This is a signal that has often preceded a market trend reversal in the past.
Large holders are buying ETH on the dip
According to CryptoQuant, the accumulation of Ethereum by large addresses began in the second quarter and continues to this day. The volume of ETH held by large investors has increased by more than 50%, while small holders have reduced their positions by 16%.
This divergence in dynamics indicates accumulation at low levels — large players are buying up liquidity from short-term traders. Analysts believe that such whale behavior historically coincides with the formation of local bottoms.
“The current Ethereum cycle resembles previous bottoming phases, when large wallets absorbed supply from retail sellers,” noted Shawn Yang, chief analyst at MEXC Research.
According to him, the resilience of the ETH/BTC pair and a 25% increase in transactions since September confirm the strength of fundamental demand.
ETH holds above $3,000 — key support zone
At the time of publication, Ethereum is trading around $3,500, down 1.1% for the day and nearly 7% for the month. Analysts agree: if the $3,000–$3,400 zone holds, the market may move into a consolidation phase and form a base for new growth.
ShayanMarkets from CryptoQuant notes that elevated spot volumes in this area often signal a squeeze before an impulse.
“If the $3,000 level holds, Ethereum may enter a low-volatility zone preceding a strong upward move.”
According to his estimate, if support holds, ETH could rise to $4,500–$4,800 in the next impulse.
Macroeconomic background and regulatory pause
The strengthening of interest in Ethereum is also supported by an improved macro situation. Optimism is linked to the end of the US government shutdown and reduced expectations of further rate hikes.
Investment analyst Lia Yuen from Fisher8 Capital notes that Ethereum accumulation by whales is synchronized with a similar trend in Bitcoin.
“It seems that new participants are returning to the market, ready to absorb supply from old investors who follow the four-year cycle,” said Yuen.
According to her, local bottoms for ETH and BTC have likely already formed — $3,200 for Ethereum and $98,000 for Bitcoin.
She also emphasized that the upcoming bill on crypto market structure in the US could become a powerful catalyst, removing regulatory uncertainty and opening the door for institutional capital.
Fusaka upgrade — the main reason for network growth
The growing interest in Ethereum coincides with the anticipation of the large-scale Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for December 3. The update is expected to increase scalability and reduce transaction costs by adding separate data channels for rollup solutions.
Shawn Yang believes this is one of the key events of the year for the ecosystem:
“The next stage of Ethereum’s growth is linked not only to DeFi, but also to real-world applications that need a fast and inexpensive network.”
Fusaka will introduce Peer Data Availability Sampling — a technology that allows nodes to exchange data fragments instead of entire blocks. This will lower hardware requirements and open up validation participation to more users.
The effect of ‘blob lanes’ and new economic incentives
Analysts warn that the upgrade will bring a trade-off between speed and ETH burning. The new blob lanes will reduce interaction costs for Layer 2 protocols, but at the same time will decrease the amount of ETH burned, which may temporarily affect the network’s deflationary effect.
Nevertheless, it will become cheaper to build and develop L2 applications, which, in Yuen’s opinion, will increase overall activity in the long term and strengthen Ethereum’s position as the base layer for DeFi.
What’s next?
The increase in whale activity, support in the $3,000 zone, and anticipation of the upgrade create a rare combination of technical and fundamental factors. If macroeconomic conditions remain favorable, Ethereum may enter an accumulation phase ahead of a new growth wave.
Analysts expect ETH to trade in the $3,200–$3,600 range in the coming weeks, and a sustained move above $3,800 will signal the start of a new uptrend.
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