Today at 08:00 UTC on Deribit, options on BTC and Ethereum totaling $9.87 billion will expire; it is the largest expiration in April 2026.
During the settlement window, 109,000 BTC contracts (notional $8.55 billion) and 563,000 ETH contracts (worth $1.32 billion) are being closed. Prior to settlement, both assets were trading above their respective max pain levels.
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Additional support for the market comes from the Web3 conference in Hong Kong, which is taking place this week. Participants cite improved sentiment across the crypto sector, which provides a steadier backdrop for BTC and ETH.
BTC and ETH Close Above Max Pain Levels
For Bitcoin, the max pain level was at $72,000, while the price held around $77,900 into expiration. The put/call ratio of 0.93 suggests a near-balanced split between bullish and bearish positioning.
BTC options expiration. Source: Deribit
For Ethereum, call-side positioning was stronger. ETH traded near $2,315, with a max pain level around $2,200. The put/call ratio was 0.72.
This tilt toward call contracts suggests traders expected continued upside. Broader altcoin recovery also appeared to follow the dominant market uptrend.
Per Deribit, open interest in calls outweighed puts for both contracts, aligning with the derivatives market’s overall risk posture. For BTC, there were 52,607 open call contracts versus 52,844 puts. For ETH, calls were more dominant, at 322,373 versus 245,862 puts.
Volatility Falls Despite Price Growth
Analysts at Greeks.live report that implied volatility for Bitcoin has continued to trend lower during the month. For key tenors, it slipped another 1–2% and is now below 40%. For Ethereum, the decline was larger, with implied volatility around 60%.
«This week the market continued to recover, and Bitcoin confidently broke through the $78,000 level. At the same time, skew metrics are falling, indicating that the growth is not related to a FOMO effect,» analysts note.
A sustained drop in volatility typically points to growth supported by ongoing demand rather than short-lived speculation. It can also suggest that expectations are becoming more stable as the market consolidates higher.
Separately, in the second quarter, Bitcoin has shown stronger performance than in the first quarter, both on price action and broader sentiment measures.
What Is Next for the Options Market
This expiration accounts for about 25% of all open interest on Deribit. The next major milestones are already visible. According to Greeks.live, roughly 12% of the remaining positions expire at the end of May and 24% at the end of June, making the June event the next key driver of the quarter.
Analysts also point out that the second quarter has been materially stronger for Bitcoin than the first, reflected in both price and overall market sentiment.
If macroeconomic pressure eases by mid-year, the current area around $78,000 could develop into more durable support.
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Contract concentration into June implies that the next quarterly expiration could have an outsized impact compared with earlier dates.
As these deadlines approach, traders are likely to monitor whether volatility continues to drift lower or rebounds.
For now, options positioning suggests restrained optimism: activity is rising with capital inflows, but without clear signs of overheating or leverage-driven overstretch.
Institutions Continue to Build Positions
Large-player behavior remains a key focus. Even with declining volatility, institutional investors appear to continue building exposure in options, reflected in the structure of open interest and consistent interest in longer-dated contracts.
In many cases, this pattern points to a more measured approach rather than short-term speculation. Larger participants are building positions with a multi-month horizon, which can contribute to a steadier demand base and lower odds of abrupt, one-off selloffs.
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The market can still react quickly to external factors. Changes in macroeconomic conditions or regulation can shift sentiment, but the current overall backdrop looks comparatively stable, with capital continuing to flow and positioning remaining relatively balanced.
