Global markets are entering the week of June 22 with a new main risk. The Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s war have faded into the background. Now investors are once again focused on the Fed.
In recent months, the market has grown tired of news about the U.S.-Iran conflict. More statements, failed negotiations, and diplomatic signals no longer provoke as sharp a reaction as before.
A much bigger impact on oil, gold, stocks, and bitcoin came from Kevin Warsh’s tough stance at the June 17 FOMC meeting. After that, investors began to reassess expectations for rates and liquidity.
Oil Falls as the War Premium Declines
On Friday, June 19, Brent hovered around $80 per barrel. Talks between the U.S. and Iran unexpectedly broke down, but the market reacted calmly.
WTI traded at about $76 per barrel. That is almost 34% below the levels seen at the peak of tensions.
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Three Saudi supertankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz last week. They carried about six million barrels of oil. Ship owners are still cautious, but they are already expressing growing confidence in the safety of the route.
The war premium that previously drove the market is gradually fading. And this did not even require a signed peace agreement.
Warsh’s Tough Stance Pressures Gold and Supports Stocks
Gold fell to about $4,150 per ounce on Friday. Meanwhile, the dollar rose to a yearly high.
The reason was not geopolitics. The market was reacting to the Fed’s tough signal after the June FOMC meeting. Now 9 out of 18 regulators expect at least one rate hike in 2026.
Goldman Sachs also became more cautious. The bank lowered its year-end gold forecast from $5,400 to $4,900 per ounce.
But U.S. stocks held up better. S&P 500 recovered losses after the Fed meeting and closed higher for the 11th week out of the last 12.
The S&P 500 has been rising since April, despite uncertainty around the conflict. Source: TradingView.
Bitcoin Faces Pressure From Two Factors at Once
BTC is holding around $64,000. The price has not hit new lows, but there is still no real momentum for growth.
After Warsh’s press conference, bitcoin fell along with gold. The market now prices in the probability of a rate hike in 2026 at about 66%. For BTC, this is a negative signal, as a tougher Fed policy usually hits liquidity and demand for risky assets.
Currently, bitcoin is trading almost 50% below its all-time high of $126,198, which was recorded in October 2025.
This week, everything will depend on U.S. GDP data and the PCE index. If the numbers confirm the Fed’s tough stance, pressure on BTC may increase. If the data is softer than expected, bitcoin will have a chance for a short-term recovery.
