It looks like the ETF market in the US is entering a new phase. As soon as next week, the first funds tied to prediction markets may appear, according to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart. In fact, this will give investors access to betting on election outcomes, but in a familiar format, through a regular ETF purchase, just like any other stock.
The reason is a new application from Roundhill, which lists an effective date of May 5. This opens the possibility for the launch of six ETFs directly linked to the upcoming political races in the US.
New ETF Format
It all started on February 14, when New York investment company Roundhill filed an application to launch a new line of ETFs tied to political prediction markets.
The RPM Democratic President ETF and RPM Republican President ETF funds will be focused on the outcome of the 2028 US presidential election.
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Four more funds: RPM Democratic Senate ETF, RPM Republican Senate ETF, RPM Democratic House ETF, and RPM Republican House ETF — are tied to the 2026 midterm elections. They will track which party gains control of Congress after the votes are counted.
Now these six ETFs tied to predictions could hit the market as soon as next week.
If the launch happens, investors will have a new tool — the opportunity to bet on political outcomes through familiar exchange-traded funds.
Prediction Market ETFs Could Launch as Soon as May 5
Senior analyst Bloomberg James Seyffart drew attention to the updated Roundhill application and noted:
“It looks like we will see the launch of prediction market ETFs as soon as next week.”
The company’s documents now specify an effective date, hinting at an imminent start to trading.
We are talking about six funds tied to real political outcomes in the US. Through them, you can essentially bet on who will take Congress or win the presidential race.
Seyffart believes this is a logical continuation of the trend: the market is gradually turning everything that can be monetized into ETFs. If there is interest and volume, over time it is almost inevitably packaged into an exchange-traded product for the mass investor.
Bitwise and GraniteShares Could Join In
Roundhill is unlikely to remain the only player. In February, similar applications were filed by GraniteShares and major crypto company Bitwise, which specializes in ETFs.
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According to James Seyffart, all issuers could launch at about the same time. This means the week of May 5 could bring several ETFs to the prediction markets.
He also noted that in the coming days it is worth watching for updated documents from Bitwise and GraniteShares. This could be a signal that they are ready to launch.
Prediction Markets Have Already Become a Multibillion-Dollar Business
Prediction markets have accelerated significantly in recent years, especially during major political campaigns. Polymarket and Kalshi quickly gained momentum thanks to a simple idea: you can trade not assets, but event outcomes.
In March 2026 alone, about $24.3 billion passed through these platforms.
Now it seems that the same mechanics are being brought to Wall Street and packaged in the ETF format.
If the launch happens, it could reach a wider audience — for those who are used to working through a broker and not dealing with separate prediction platforms.
