In June, ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood actively bought shares of companies related to the crypto market. The fund invested about $77 million: approximately $44 million went to Coinbase, $25.25 million to Circle and another $8.2 million to Bullish.
The purchases came at a less than ideal time for the market. For bitcoin, June was the worst month in the past four years. But the logic of ARK is clear: the fund has long bet on companies that provide access to the crypto market through the traditional stock market, without directly buying coins.
At first glance, this approach seems calmer. The investor buys shares of a public company, not cryptocurrency on an exchange. But in fact, the risk does not disappear.
Data on nine American crypto stocks show that their 30-day annualized volatility this year was in the range of 68% to 90%. For bitcoin, this figure was about 37.6%. That is, many of these stocks moved almost twice as sharply as BTC itself.
Over a period of 90 days, the gap became even more noticeable. For Circle volatility reached 103.6%, while for bitcoin it was about 37.8%.
The drawdowns were also deeper. Circle is now trading about 51.4% below its 2026 high, Strategy lost 48.6%, and Bullish fell by 43.6%. For comparison, bitcoin rolled back about 36.4% from its January peak of about $97,000.
30-day annualized volatility of BTC, ETH, and U.S. crypto stocks
Only One of These Crypto Stocks Truly Tracks Bitcoin
The full picture is shown by market data. Year-to-date returns are calculated from the closing price at the end of 2025.
The beta indicator reflects how strongly a stock reacts to bitcoin’s movement. For example, a beta of 1.5 means that if BTC rises by 1%, the stock on average gains about 1.5%, and if bitcoin falls, the stock drops even more.
Beta and correlation figures in the study are calculated based on data from the past 90 trading days.
| Asset | Return in 2026 | Drawdown From 2026 High | 30-Day Realized Volatility | Beta to BTC | Correlation With BTC |
| BTC | -29.5% | -36.4% | 37.6% | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| ETH | -42.2% | -48.8% | 64.5% | 1.25 | 0.90 |
| COIN (Coinbase) | -26.8% | -35.3% | 68.4% | 1.26 | 0.75 |
| HOOD (Robinhood) | -0.3% | -8.5% | 80.0% | 0.96 | 0.58 |
| CRCL (Circle) | -18.5% | -51.4% | 89.9% | 1.18 | 0.55 |
| BLSH (Bullish) | -32.5% | -43.6% | 80.6% | 0.89 | 0.58 |
| MSTR (Strategy) | -33.7% | -48.6% | 81.8% | 1.59 | 0.85 |
| GLXY (Galaxy Digital) | +10.0% | -28.3% | 78.8% | 1.44 | 0.71 |
| MARA (MARA Holdings) | +38.1% | -16.5% | 68.2% | 1.20 | 0.65 |
| RIOT (Riot Platforms) | +74.5% | -22.9% | 70.8% | 1.07 | 0.56 |
| CLSK (CleanSpark) | +24.7% | -32.9% | 76.0% | 1.23 | 0.67 |
It is Strategy (MSTR) that most closely fits the definition of a “bitcoin substitute stock.” The company’s beta is 1.59, and its correlation with BTC reaches 0.85. Essentially, this is an opportunity to get increased exposure to bitcoin through the stock market. During the recent market downturn, MSTR shares behaved accordingly: they fell more than bitcoin itself, both year-to-date and relative to their 2026 highs.
Among crypto stocks, Coinbase (COIN) can be considered the most balanced bet on bitcoin. Since the beginning of the year, the company’s shares have lost 26.8%, which is slightly better than BTC. At the same time, its beta is 1.26, and its correlation with bitcoin is the second highest in the sample. However, Coinbase’s stock volatility is almost twice that of bitcoin, and the stock is still 60.6% below its record high of $419.78, reached in July 2025. Investors who bought shares at the peak lost more than those who bought bitcoin at its all-time high of $126,223 in October 2025.
The clearest example of how stock risk can masquerade as crypto risk is Circle (CRCL). The company has the lowest correlation with bitcoin in the group and the highest volatility over the past 90 days — 103.6%.
See also: Stablecoin Inflows to Exchanges Fall to 18-Month Low
The reason became clear on June 30, when CRCL shares plunged 17.5% in a single trading session after the launch of a competing stablecoin, Open USD, which was supported by more than 140 companies, including Coinbase, Stripe, Visa, Mastercard and BlackRock.
This drop had almost nothing to do with bitcoin’s movement. The stablecoin market is primarily a business related to payments and competition, so Circle shareholders faced risks specific to this industry.
On the other side is Robinhood (HOOD), which confirms the same conclusion. The broker’s shares have barely changed since the start of the year, losing just 0.3%, and their drawdown from the 2026 high is only 8.5% — the best result among the companies considered. The reason is that the crypto segment makes up only part of Robinhood‘s business, which also actively works with stocks, options, and derivatives. This diversification softened the decline but at the same time did not allow investors to fully benefit from the crypto market’s growth.
The most unusual result in the study came from mining companies. Riot shares rose by 74.5% since the beginning of the year, MARA gained 38.1%, and CleanSpark — 24.7%, even though bitcoin itself lost 29.5% over the same period.
This divergence is explained by the fact that miners are gradually turning into infrastructure providers for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. In recent months, companies have signed contracts for computing power worth tens of billions of dollars and have simultaneously reduced their bitcoin reserves.
At the same time, their beta still exceeds one, so in the short term they continue to move with BTC. However, their main profit this year came not from cryptocurrencies, but from revenues from AI infrastructure deployment.
Performance of BTC, ETH, and U.S. crypto stocks since the start of 2026.
For comparison, bitcoin itself was not particularly stable either. According to the BVRV index from Volmex, which tracks the 30-day realized volatility of BTC, the figure dropped to 24.5 points at the end of May, and by early July rose to 41.6. In February, it briefly climbed to 68.7 points. However, even against this backdrop, the volatility of most crypto stocks was still about twice as high.
Strategy’s Problems Revealed Hidden Risks of Crypto Stocks
With Strategy it is clear where a simple bet on bitcoin ends and the risks inherent to ordinary business begin.
A bitcoin holder is mainly at risk due to fluctuations in the coin’s price. But an investor in a company related to BTC shares also faces a whole set of additional risks: dilution, capital raising issues, loss of market premium, and changes in financial strategy.
See also: Bitcoin Oversight in Europe to Be Strengthened Amid Anti-Terrorism Financing Efforts
At the end of June, Strategy faced almost all of these problems at once. The company’s mNAV indicator fell below one for the first time. This ratio compares the value of the business to the market value of the bitcoins on the company’s balance sheet.
If mNAV falls below 1, it means the market values the entire business lower than its bitcoin holdings. As of June 22, Strategy held 847,363 BTC, which at that time were worth about $50 billion.
A drop in mNAV below one calls the company’s entire model into question. The whole growth strategy of Strategy was based on the shares trading at a premium to the value of the bitcoins on the balance sheet.
Thanks to this premium, Michael Saylor‘s team could issue new shares above the value of the underlying asset, raise money, and use it to buy more BTC. As a result, the number of bitcoins per share increased.
Below the mark of 1, the whole scheme starts working in reverse. If the company continues to issue new shares, it will raise capital at a valuation below the value of its own BTC reserves.
By the end of June, Strategy ‘s capitalization had fallen to $29.54 billion. For comparison, in 2024 the market valued the company at more than $71 billion. The preferred shares used to finance bitcoin purchases were also trading near their lows by this point.
The company’s subsequent actions clearly showed how shares differ from direct BTC ownership. On June 29, Strategy announced a share buyback program and allowed, if necessary, the sale of bitcoins worth up to $1.25 billion. This money is needed as a reserve for paying dividends on preferred shares and servicing debts.
This happened shortly after the first BTC sale in several years. On June 1, the company sold 32 bitcoins. Before that, Strategy had not sold its coins since 2022.
After the announcement, the shares rose by 12.6%, ending an eight-day losing streak. However, the very fact that the largest corporate bitcoin holder received permission to sell BTC in a weak market to support its financial structure shows the difference between shares and direct coin ownership. Bitcoin holders do not face such restrictions.
It was in this situation that Cathie Wood’s fund continued to buy crypto stocks. On June 25 alone, ARK funds bought 35,023 shares of Robinhood for about $3.27 million, while also increasing positions in Coinbase, Circle and Bullish, despite all four stocks declining.
See also: Ethereum Priorities Through 2029: Buterin Highlights Quantum Protection, Scaling, and Privacy
Wood combines these purchases with a long-term bitcoin forecast of several million dollars and believes she now has the opportunity to buy companies at a significant discount to their 2025 valuations.
But the data show that all these companies represent completely different investment stories. MSTR remains a bet on bitcoin with the additional risk of shareholder dilution. Circle is a payment company fighting for a share of the stablecoin market. Robinhood is a diversified broker where the crypto business plays only a secondary role.
Buying such stocks essentially becomes a bet on several different business models at once, and their level of connection to the crypto market varies greatly.
Each of these companies has its own investment story. Coinbase performed better than bitcoin this year, Robinhood managed to better preserve investor capital, and miners delivered the highest returns in the sector.
If an investor expects that buying crypto stocks automatically makes investments less risky, the numbers do not confirm this. Some stocks moved even more sharply than bitcoin itself, while others depended on factors not related to the crypto market at all.
The companies that weathered this year’s turbulence better than others did so not because of BTC. They were helped by other business lines: AI contracts, brokerage services, and payment products. Therefore, their resilience is explained not by the crypto market, but by their own revenue sources.
