Safe-haven assets are back in the spotlight. Gold exceeded $5,000 per ounce for the first time in history, while bitcoin fell to $86,000. The divergence between the two assets has sharply increased amid trade conflicts, political uncertainty in the US, and expectations regarding the Fed rate. The market is increasingly betting on classic ‘safe havens.’
Gold Rises Amid Geopolitics and Tariffs
At the start of the week, the price of gold reached $5,080 per ounce. Since the beginning of the year, growth has been about 17%. Investors are actively shifting into the metal due to the risk of a US government shutdown and escalating trade disputes.
The signal intensified after another statement from Donald Trump. The president threatened Canada with tariffs of up to 100% in the context of negotiations with China. Markets saw this as a sign of a new wave of pressure on global trade.
An additional factor was the uncertainty surrounding the US budget. Fears of a possible shutdown spurred demand for safe-haven assets and accelerated capital inflows into gold.
Silver Also Hits New Highs
The rally affected not only gold. Silver rose above $107 per ounce for the first time and has gained about 48% since the start of 2026. The movement appears synchronized and points to broad demand for precious metals as an asset class.
Investors prefer physical protection from risks associated with politics and macroeconomics.
Bitcoin and Ether Lag Behind
Against this backdrop, the crypto market looks weaker. Bitcoin lost about 1.6% in 24 hours and at one point fell below $86,000 on Coinbase. Since the October peak of $126,000, the decline is about 30%.
Ethereum also remains under pressure. The price fell below $2,800, and from the August all-time high of $4,946, the asset has dropped by more than 40%.
The story with the prediction market was also telling. On Polymarket, a bet was placed last fall on which asset would reach $5,000 first—gold or ether. Gold turned out to be the winner, closing the bet long before ETH recovered.
Correlation Between Gold and Bitcoin Collapses
Over the past year, the divergence has become especially noticeable. Since the same period last year, gold has risen by about 83%, while bitcoin has lost about 17%.
This undermines the usual narrative of BTC as ‘digital gold.’ In times of heightened uncertainty, investors choose an asset with a longer history and a clear status as a safe-haven instrument.
Why Investors Are Avoiding Treasury Bonds
Interestingly, capital is flowing into gold rather than US government bonds. According to BTSE COO Jeff May, the market is pricing in the Fed maintaining current rates amid strong economic and employment data.
In addition, the threat of a shutdown and trade conflicts are reducing the appeal of Treasuries. In such an environment, global investors prefer gold as a neutral asset without political risk.
The factor of tariffs and budget disputes makes even US debt instruments a less obvious refuge.
What This Means for Markets
The sharp rise in gold and the fall in crypto assets indicate a shift in priorities. Investors are reducing risk and moving into proven instruments while the political and trade agenda remains tense.
This is a difficult period for bitcoin. Without an influx of institutional capital and amid growing uncertainty, pressure may persist. At the same time, the metals market is receiving support from several directions at once.
Gold once again confirms its status as the main safe-haven asset during periods of global turbulence. Bitcoin, for now, cannot compete for the role of ‘safe haven,’ and the gap between the two markets continues to widen.
Read More: How Traders Earn in a Sideways Market Using Grid Bots
