Missiles in the sky — oil down: the market acted ahead
When Iran struck the US base in Qatar, logic suggested prices would rise. But the opposite happened. Brent collapsed by 7.2% — the biggest one-day drop in almost three years. And all this — in just a couple of hours. The market did not panic. It acted coolly.
Trump spoke — the market reacted
Just three hours before the missile launch, Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social:
‘Don’t give in to the enemy. Oil prices must fall — and immediately.’ And apparently, Wall Street heard him.
The first missile, according to FT, was launched at 17:30 Doha time. Just 7 minutes later, Brent’s price started to fall. After 20 minutes — minus 3%. By 19:30, a barrel cost $71.48.
Read more: Trump demands lower oil prices and warns: ‘You are playing into the enemy’s hands’
The base was empty — and the market knew it
Amid military actions, traders closely watched not the news, but satellite images and Twitter. From them it was clear: the US Al Udeid base in Qatar was empty. The evacuation happened in advance.
Analyst Jorge Montepeque stated directly:
‘It’s a setup. We knew as early as June 18 that the base was empty. We had already seen it.’
So — the attack was symbolic. And traders understood this. Therefore, no one rushed to buy oil in panic. On the contrary, they started selling.
Open data became a weapon for hedge funds
Traders literally lived in the X Osint account. Satellite images, military chats, geolocations: everything was used to assess real risks. One of the top managers in commodity trading admitted:
‘We all watch the same channels to understand what’s happening. It’s not about Bloomberg anymore, it’s about open sources.’
As long as oil flows — panic is impossible
The main factor — supplies did not stop. Iran did not block the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover — Iran increased exports because it cannot handle refining inside the country.
Oil continued to flow to the market. When oil flows — the market does not get nervous. That’s the main rule.
Also read: How SEI grew by 100% in June: factors of explosive growth
Prices jump — traders sell
Last week, Israel’s attack on targets in Iran caused prices to rise by 5.5%. But as soon as information appeared that Tehran wanted peace — the growth evaporated. For traders, only one thing matters: will there be a supply shortage. If not — then you need to sell at the peak.
‘This is not Ukraine. Here you don’t need to change global supply chains,’ said one market participant. ‘Here you need to sell quickly as soon as the spike ends.’
Options and hedgers created additional pressure
Before the conflict, many producers had already bought put options. To balance risk, brokers started selling futures. When Brent started to fall, options approached payout — this accelerated sales. A classic domino effect.
The market didn’t believe in growth from the start
Prices were held at an artificial level. OPEC+ increased production. The US brought shale producers back online. Supply was rising, but demand was not.
Even the White House did not touch strategic reserves. RBC quotes Helima Croft’s strategy:
‘The Biden administration had a plan B — they knew where to get extra barrels in case of problems.’
Peace — and oil goes even lower
When Trump helped achieve a ceasefire, Brent fell another 6.1%. The price dropped below $68 — below pre-war levels.
Read further: The market soared after Trump’s statement on a ceasefire between Iran and Israel
