The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US rose by 3% year-on-year in September, showing the strongest acceleration since the end of 2023. The main driver of growth was again energy — a jump in gasoline prices pushed the overall inflation rate above expectations.
Energy pushes inflation up again
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the CPI increased by 0.3% for the month after 0.4% in August. The main contribution came from gasoline — its price jumped by 4.1%, which pushed the entire energy index up by 1.5% for the month.
Overall, over the past 12 months, energy rose in price by 2.8%, but volatility is noticeable in the dynamics. Electricity increased by 5.1%, natural gas — by 11.7%, while gasoline, despite the September growth, is still 0.5% cheaper compared to last year.
Food prices rise slowly but steadily
Food prices increased by 0.2% for the month and by 3.1% for the year. The growth was driven by cereals and bakery products (+0.7%), non-alcoholic beverages (+0.7%), and meat, poultry, fish, and eggs (+0.3%). However, dairy products fell by 0.5%, and fruits and vegetables remained unchanged.
Year-on-year, groceries for home consumption rose by 2.7%, while eating out increased by 3.7%. Prices for meals in cafes and restaurants rose by 3.2–4.2%, reflecting rising costs in the services sector.
Core inflation is stable
Excluding energy and food, the core CPI rose by 0.2% for the month and by 3% year-on-year. This matches the data for August and July, indicating stable dynamics.
The main contributions came from housing, airfares, recreation, household goods, and clothing. Rent and owners’ equivalent rent increased by only 0.2% and 0.1% — the slowest pace since January 2021. Airfares rose by 2.7% after a jump of 5.9% in August.
At the same time, car insurance and used car prices declined, offsetting some of the growth in other categories.
Medical services and household expenses are rising
Medical care increased by 0.2% for the month and by 3.3% for the year. Hospital services and medicines added 0.3% each, while dental and physician services declined slightly. The household operations index rose by 4.1% for the year, reflecting higher utility and repair service costs.
Alternative indices also point to growth
The CPI-W, which tracks the spending dynamics of workers and employees, rose by 2.9% for the year, and the chained C-CPI-U index showed a similar increase of 2.9%.
Experts note that the September data confirmed moderate but steady inflationary pressure. At the same time, the figures were collected before the start of budget disputes in Congress, which may affect the figures in the coming months.
What’s next?
The rise in energy and service prices shows that inflation remains a live issue for the Fed. Despite the slowdown in core CPI, the regulator is unlikely to rush to cut rates. In the coming months, investors’ attention will be focused on the dynamics of fuel and housing — key factors shaping the inflation trajectory by the end of the year.
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