JPMorgan has become more cautious about gold in the coming months. The bank revised its forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 and now expects a price of around $4,500 per ounce instead of the previous $6,000.
The reason is that demand from major buyers has noticeably weakened. However, JPMorgan does not believe the long-term growth of gold is over. It’s more about a weaker period before a possible continuation upward.
JPMorgan Cuts Gold Forecast
Now, the bank’s analysts expect the average gold price in the third quarter to be around $4,300 per ounce, and by the fourth quarter to rise to about $4,500.
The difference from the previous forecast is significant. Previously, JPMorgan allowed for growth up to nearly $6,000 per ounce by year-end, so the new estimate is about 25% lower.
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The main reason for the revision is weaker demand. Buyers in key markets have become more cautious, and gold itself is reacting more strongly to real interest rates. Because of this, the room for rapid growth is currently limited.
The bank believes that in the near term, gold may get stuck in a range. In other words, JPMorgan does not expect a sharp upward move right now. Rather, the market will likely move sideways for some time before a new impulse appears.
Other major banks are more optimistic. Goldman Sachs expects gold around $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. They are betting on demand from governments and central banks of developing countries.
UBS is even more bullish and forecasts about $5,200 within the next 12 months. The bank believes the market will be influenced by expectations for Fed policy and pressure on the dollar.
Morgan Stanley also names the $5,200 level in the second half of 2026. But they warn that for such a scenario, gold needs a stronger inflow of money into ETFs.
Currently, gold is trading around $4,175 per ounce and has gained 1.26% in the past day. However, the metal is still about 26% below the January 2026 high, when the price climbed to $5,600, according to TradingView.
Gold price dynamics (XAU). Source: TradingView.
Why JPMorgan Still Believes in Gold
Despite a more cautious short-term forecast, JPMorgan remains on gold’s side in the long run. The bank believes the metal has several strong support factors that could remain in play through 2027.
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The first factor is central banks. They continue to increase gold reserves, and this demand has not disappeared. In addition, physical demand for gold may also strengthen in the coming months.
The second factor is large investors. Institutional players still use gold as protection against market risks and keep it in their portfolios. So far, there are no signs that they are massively abandoning this strategy.
Therefore, JPMorgan believes that gold will maintain its status as a safe-haven asset and alternative reserve.
This forecast is also important for the crypto market. In recent years, gold and bitcoin have often competed for investors’ attention as safe-haven assets. If gold really moves sideways, some capital may temporarily seek more active opportunities in cryptocurrencies.
But this does not mean that gold is losing its role. Rather, the market has paused after strong growth. JPMorgan sees this as a temporary cooling, not the end of the long-term trend.
