American trading firm Jump Trading is strengthening its presence in prediction markets. The company has agreed to acquire stakes in the Kalshi and Polymarket platforms in exchange for providing liquidity and trading capabilities, Bloomberg reports.
The deals reflect growing institutional interest in the event contracts segment, which has seen significant growth in both volume and company valuations over the past year.
How the Deals With Kalshi and Polymarket Work
According to agency sources, the agreement with Kalshi provides for a fixed stake for Jump in the platform’s capital. In the case of Polymarket, the structure is different: the size of the stake will increase as the volume of liquidity Jump supplies to the US platform grows.
Both deals are structured as venture agreements, where the market maker receives a stake in the company instead of the classic trading service fee. This model is increasingly used in segments where stable liquidity remains a key success factor.
Platform Valuations and Institutional Interest
Jump’s interest coincided with a sharp rise in the valuations of prediction market leaders. Polymarket, according to the latest data, is valued at about $9 billion, while Kalshi has raised funding at a valuation of around $11 billion.
The growth in capitalization confirms that prediction markets have ceased to be a niche product and have begun to attract systematic capital. Institutional participants see them as a new class of financial instruments, combining elements of derivatives and alternative markets.
Jump Trading’s Strategic Pivot
This is a significant step in business development for Jump Trading. The company was founded more than 25 years ago by former Chicago Mercantile Exchange traders and has traditionally specialized in high-frequency trading and market making.
In recent months, Jump has been actively building expertise in the event contracts segment. According to Bloomberg, the firm has formed a team of more than 20 traders focused exclusively on prediction markets, and has also invested in technological infrastructure to support these operations.
Why Market Makers Are Critical for Prediction Markets
Prediction markets directly depend on market makers who use their own capital to maintain quotes and take on counterparty positions. This is especially important during periods of low liquidity or high uncertainty.
This is why platforms are increasingly offering equity participation instead of commissions. For market makers, this is a way to get long-term upside, and for platforms — to secure strategic partners.
Not Only Jump
Jump Trading is not the only major firm entering this segment. Susquehanna International Group has previously publicly disclosed its cooperation with Kalshi as a market maker.
In 2025, Susquehanna, together with Robinhood Markets, acquired a controlling stake in LedgerX, gaining direct access to the listing and clearing infrastructure for event contracts in the US.
Prediction Markets Are Growing, but Risks Remain
Despite the growth in volumes and valuations, the prediction markets segment remains under regulatory scrutiny. Kalshi and Polymarket offer contracts on a wide range of outcomes — from elections and macroeconomic data to weather events and sports.
The infrastructure remains fragmented, and competition between platforms is intensifying. In such conditions, access to liquidity and support from major market makers become key factors for business survival and scaling.
What’s Next?
Jump Trading’s participation confirms that prediction markets are moving from the experimental stage to a phase of institutionalization. As professional traders and capital enter, this segment may take a stable place alongside traditional derivatives.
At the same time, further growth will depend not only on investor interest, but also on how regulators define the legal status of such contracts in the US and other jurisdictions.
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