The crypto market is entering one of the most intense weeks of the month. Against the backdrop of a large-scale correction, investors are awaiting several macroeconomic releases that could determine the future direction of movement.
After a $700 billion sell-off, the market barely moved over the weekend. Bitcoin is holding near $69,000, but it remains significantly below its all-time high and is still lagging nearly 44% behind its peak values.
Bitcoin Balances After Sharp Drop
Last week, the price of bitcoin fell to around $60,000, followed by a rebound. The asset is now trading around $69,875, but the technical and macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain.
Investors are closely watching external factors. This week, five key macro reports and speeches from Fed officials are expected, each of which could increase volatility.
Retail Sales on Tuesday
On Tuesday, retail sales data for December will be released, which had been delayed due to the US government shutdown. The forecast calls for a 0.4% month-over-month increase versus 0.6% in November.
This report provides insight into the state of consumer demand. Weaker numbers could strengthen expectations for an earlier rate cut, which typically supports risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Labor Market in Focus on Wednesday
The key event of the week will be the January US jobs report. The number of new nonfarm jobs is expected to be about 80,000 versus 50,000 a month earlier. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.4%.
CNBC commentator Jim Cramer noted that this report could be decisive for the markets. According to him, weak data will give the Fed more room to cut rates, while strong statistics will increase pressure on risk assets.
For the crypto market, soft employment data will be a positive signal. Conversely, strong statistics could intensify selling.
Coinbase and Robinhood Reports Will Show Market State
On Tuesday, Robinhood will release its report. Analysts expect crypto trading revenue to fall by 28% to $259 million, despite the company's total revenue rising by 34%.
On Thursday, Coinbase will present its financial results. The report will provide a clearer understanding of how the recent correction has affected trading volumes and the activity of retail and institutional clients.
CPI Inflation Will End the Week
On Friday, the US inflation report for January will be released. The forecast calls for a slowdown in the annual growth of the consumer price index to 2.5% from 2.7%. At the same time, core inflation on a monthly basis is expected to accelerate to 0.31% from 0.20% in December.
Bank of America economists believe that inflationary pressure may have increased at the start of 2026. The Fed still describes inflation as 'moderately elevated,' making the CPI report especially important for rate expectations.
Fed Officials' Speeches Will Add Volatility
An additional source of uncertainty will be speeches from several Fed officials. This week, comments are scheduled from Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, Beth Hammack, Michelle Bowman, and Steven Miran.
The market is currently pricing in no rate cut until June and expects two 25-basis-point moves by the end of the year. Any signals of a revision to these expectations could quickly affect cryptocurrencies.
What Traders Need to Know
Weak labor market data and slowing inflation will strengthen the case for monetary policy easing. In this scenario, bitcoin and altcoins could have room to recover.
If macro statistics are stronger than expected or the Fed's rhetoric becomes tougher, pressure on the crypto market will remain. After a large-scale sell-off, this week could determine whether a local bottom is forming or the decline will continue.
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