The probability that the CLARITY Act will actually be passed has risen to about 68%. This reflects growing expectations that the US will finally be able to introduce clearer rules for the crypto market.
But alongside this optimism, there remains an important nuance. Politics in Washington can still intervene and slow down the process. It all comes down to who will take control of the Senate. If things do not go well, the bill can easily be postponed or even frozen altogether.
The CLARITY Act itself was conceived as an attempt to finally bring order to crypto regulation. After a long pause, discussions in the Senate have finally moved off dead center.
The market perked up a bit when key issues began to find common ground. This primarily concerns stablecoins and the division of powers between the SEC and CFTC.
The political factor adds additional pressure. Alex Thorn notes that the fight for the Senate is now almost even. And how the balance of power shifts after the elections will directly determine what crypto regulation will look like.
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Much is decided by the Senate Banking Committee. It is through this committee that key financial initiatives pass. Who will be in charge will become clear after the elections. If the Democrats take the majority, among the candidates for the post are Sherrod Brown and Elizabeth Warren.
And here a risk arises. Warren has long been a harsh critic of cryptocurrencies, and if she is appointed, the bill may face serious resistance or again be sidelined. According to prediction markets like Polymarket, the balance of power in the Senate is now about 50 to 50.
This uncertainty is prompting some politicians to move faster. For example, Republican Senator Thom Tillis is already calling for the bill to be brought up for discussion as soon as Congress returns from the May recess.
Why the Odds of the Bill Passing Are Rising
Despite political risks, confidence in the passage of the CLARITY Act is gradually increasing. The probability recently rose to 68% and is now holding in the range of about 63–65% on Polymarket. These are the highest values in recent weeks.
This is largely due to the fact that the bill has advanced within the Senate Banking Committee, led by Tim Scott. According to him, the document has already entered the so-called “red zone.” This is the stage of detailed elaboration, which in Congress is called markup.
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This stage is expected to be completed by May 2026. At the same time, progress has been made on one of the most difficult issues: the regulation of stablecoins and how to account for income from such assets.
This issue had long stalled negotiations. Now the parties have found a compromise and closed some of the contentious topics that had kept the process at a standstill.
At the same time, all this is beginning to be linked to a broader regulatory system. These agreements largely coincide with other initiatives, including the GENIUS Act, which is also aimed at creating clearer rules for the digital asset market.
What Happens if the Course in Washington Changes
But now it all comes down to something else. What if the political landscape changes? Now the CLARITY Act is already moving forward with support from both parties and has even passed the House of Representatives. This shows that the bill has momentum.
In the Senate the situation remains tense. There is still no unified approach to exactly how to regulate the crypto market. If Republicans retain influence, supporters of the bill believe the process will move faster. Tim Scott, for example, is first trying to build support within his own party before continuing negotiations with the Democrats.
If the advantage goes to the Democrats, especially those who favor a more cautious approach to crypto, the situation could slow down sharply.
In this case, even a strong bill could be delayed or significantly changed.
The CLARITY Act itself is important not only because of politics. It is about basic rules for the market, which the US still lacks. Right now, companies often do not understand what regulation they fall under. In some cases, it is securities laws, in others, commodities laws, and sometimes even gray areas.
