Earning steady profits on prediction markets is almost impossible. New data shows that only 0.015% of Polymarket traders can maintain an income above $5,000 per month for several consecutive months.
Change in the percentage of Polymarket traders who have averaged more than $1,000, $5,000, and $10,000 in monthly profits since April 2024.
The picture is tough. Most participants either earn episodically or quickly lose interest in trading.
One-Time Success Does Not Turn Into Steady Income
According to analytics, about 1% of traders have earned more than $5,000 in a month at least once. But only a few manage to maintain this result.
Only 0.1% were able to repeat such income the next month, and only 0.015% managed to do so for four consecutive months. This is the key point. There are one-time successes, but almost no sustainable earning models.
Only a Few Earn Above Average Income
For comparison, the average salary in the US is about $5,200 per month. This makes the $5,000 mark a logical benchmark.
But statistics show that reaching this level regularly is almost impossible. Even among those who have already shown results, most do not maintain them.
Thus, the idea of replacing a main job with trading on Polymarket remains more of an exception than a real scenario.
Large Profits Are Also Rare
Stories of high incomes exist. For example, some traders have earned six-figure sums in a month. But in the overall market structure, this is a minimal share. Only about 0.033% of wallets have managed to earn more than $100,000.
At the same time, some of these participants are not private traders, but professional teams and funds. This further reduces the chances for ordinary users.
Most Do Not Stay on the Market
Another feature is low retention. Even among profitable traders, many do not stay long. Of about 6,600 addresses with income above $5,000 per month, only 172 continued to trade actively for more than a year. This is about 2.6%.
This dynamic shows that the market is more like short cycles of participation than stable professional activity.
Why This Happens
The mechanics of prediction markets seem simple. Participants buy “yes” or “no” shares at prices from $0 to $1, assessing the probability of an event.
But in practice, competition is high. Participants face more experienced players, algorithms, and teams with access to analytics. As a result, the advantage goes to the minority.
The Market Is Growing, but Not Getting Easier
Prediction markets remain one of the fastest-growing segments. They cover politics, sports, finance, and other events.
But growing interest does not make trading easier. On the contrary, an increasing number of participants intensifies competition. This reduces the likelihood of stable earnings for new users.
What's Next?
Polymarket continues to attract attention and liquidity. But the data show that the market still remains a niche for a limited circle of participants.
For most users, it is more a tool for speculation and short-term attempts to earn money than a full-fledged alternative to a job. The main conclusion is simple. It is possible to earn money, but almost no one manages to do it consistently.
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