Regulated perpetual futures in the U.S. could follow a path similar to the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. At first, they will be actively used by professional traders and companies already connected to exchange infrastructure. Later, asset managers and investment advisors may enter the market.
This scenario was described by Kraken’s head of derivatives, John Palmer. According to him, the first participants are usually the most prepared: they already trade directly, use their own strategies, and quickly understand how to integrate a new tool into their workflow.
New Tool Moves Out of Offshore Zone
Perpetual futures have long been one of the main products in the global crypto market. On international platforms, they account for the majority of derivatives turnover because they allow holding a leveraged position without a contract expiration date.
In the U.S., access to such instruments was restricted for a long time due to regulation. As a result, many traders moved to foreign platforms where such contracts had already become standard.
Now the situation is starting to change. The American market is preparing for the launch of regulated perpetual futures. This could move the popular instrument from a gray or offshore infrastructure into a more transparent legal environment.
Why the ETF Comparison Matters
Spot bitcoin ETFs gave traditional investors easy access to BTC through brokerage accounts. Perpetual futures could do something similar, but for active trading and derivatives.
The difference is in the audience. ETFs became a tool for investors who wanted exposure to bitcoin without wallets and exchanges. Perpetual futures are more suitable for traders who care about leverage, hedging, and quick access to positions.
Palmer believes the adoption process will be similar. First, retail and professional participants who make decisions faster will enter. Large asset managers will move more slowly because they need to go through internal committees, risk checks, and corporate procedures.
Major Players Will Be More Cautious
For asset managers and investment advisors, a new product does not become operational immediately after launch. They need to understand legal risks, settlement models, collateral requirements, liquidity, and the instrument’s behavior under stress conditions.
This is exactly what happened with bitcoin ETFs. After launch, active investors and more experienced clients were the first to enter. Larger institutions joined later, after passing internal checks and understanding how the product works in practice.
It could be the same with perpetual futures. Professional traders will start using them earlier, and broader institutional demand will form gradually.
Kraken Prepares for Launch
Kraken entered the regulated U.S. derivatives market through the acquisitions of NinjaTrader and Bitnomial. These deals gave the company access to licenses related to futures trading, exchange infrastructure, and clearing under CFTC oversight.
The platform plans to launch perpetual futures on Kraken Pro in the coming weeks. For the company, this is a way to expand its product line in the U.S. and bring the local market closer to what has long been available to international traders.
The launch is important not only for Kraken. If regulated perpetual contracts start to gain volume, American users will get an alternative to foreign platforms where such instruments have long been central.
Kalshi Has Already Shown Demand
There are already signs of interest. The prediction markets platform Kalshi, which recently launched perpetual futures in the U.S., reported that trading volume for the product exceeded $1 billion.
This shows that demand for the regulated version of the instrument could be high. Especially among traders who previously did not want or could not work through international platforms.
For the market, this is an important test. If volumes continue to grow, other exchanges and brokers may develop similar products more quickly. Then perpetual futures will become not an experiment, but a full-fledged part of the American crypto infrastructure.
Simplicity Became the Main Advantage
One reason for the popularity of perpetual futures is the absence of an expiration date. In regular futures, a trader needs to monitor the contract term and roll the position into the next period if they want to keep the trade open.
There is no such problem with perpetual contracts. A position can be held as long as margin and market conditions allow. This is simpler for active traders and more convenient for strategies that do not want to constantly move from one contract to another.
According to Palmer, it is this simplicity that has made the instrument so popular outside the U.S. If American platforms can remove unnecessary complexity and add clear collateral, the product could quickly find its audience.
The Next Step Is Crypto Collateral
Kraken is also considering the possibility of using crypto assets as collateral. This could bring the U.S. market closer to the international model, where traders often use digital assets not only as the object of trading but also as collateral.
This is important for users. If collateral can be held in cryptocurrencies, trading becomes more flexible. There is no need to constantly convert capital to dollars and back, and the portfolio can be used more efficiently.
But this approach will require caution. Regulated platforms must consider collateral volatility, liquidation risks, and regulatory requirements. Therefore, expanding these capabilities will proceed gradually.
The Market Is Only Beginning to Form
Despite the trillions in global crypto derivatives turnover, the U.S. segment of regulated perpetual futures is still at the very beginning. Palmer described the situation as the start of the game, not its mature stage.
That is an accurate description. The instrument has already proven popular outside the U.S., but in the regulated American environment, it still needs to be tested for liquidity, risks, institutional interest, and regulator response.
If the first launches are successful, perpetual futures could become the next major product after ETFs. Not for passive bitcoin holding, but for active trading, hedging, and deeper work with the crypto market.
What's Next?
The coming months will show how quickly traders will adopt regulated perpetual futures in the U.S. The first volumes on Kalshi already indicate demand, but the product’s resilience will only become clear after several market cycles.
For Kraken and other platforms, the main challenge is to give users a familiar tool, but in a legally transparent environment. For institutions, it is to understand how to include it in risk control and capital management procedures.
The main takeaway is simple. Spot ETFs opened the way to bitcoin for traditional investors. Regulated perpetual futures could open the next level of the market: active derivatives trading in the U.S. without moving to offshore platforms.
Read More: Wall Street Bets on On-Chain Exchanges: HYPE ETF Attracts $161 Million in Just One Month
