A sharp sell-off in the crypto market led to a surge in activity on prediction markets. On June 2, Polymarket and Kalshi set new all-time highs for daily volume in the crypto category, as traders looked for new ways to profit from volatility.
According to Artemis, Polymarket’s crypto segment volume reached $176 million, while Kalshi recorded $108 million. These are record values for both platforms. The growth coincided with the largest wave of liquidations in the crypto market since February.
Traders Moved Where They Could Trade Events
The main shift occurred as bitcoin fell below $67,000 for the first time since April 2. In one day, the crypto market lost about $137 billion in capitalization, and the volume of liquidated leveraged positions exceeded $1.76 billion.
During such periods, some participants move from regular asset trading to event-based markets. There, you can bet not only on the price of bitcoin but also on specific outcomes: levels, dates, macroeconomic events, regulatory decisions, and the behavior of large companies.
This makes Polymarket and Kalshi a convenient alternative to futures. When the market becomes too volatile, traders start looking for instruments where risk can be expressed through a binary scenario. This may have boosted the volume inflow on June 2.
Kalshi Surpassed $100 Million in the Crypto Category for the First Time
For Kalshi, the day was especially important. The platform surpassed the $100 million mark in daily crypto segment volume for the first time, reaching $108 million. The previous record was set on March 16.
Polymarket, meanwhile, maintained a higher daily figure, reaching $176 million. However, Kalshi’s momentum shows that competition in the segment is changing rapidly. The platform is increasingly taking market share in categories where Polymarket used to dominate.
This is also evident in broader data. In May, the entire prediction market sector posted $28.4 billion in volume, setting a new monthly high. It was the fourth consecutive month of turnover growth.
Kalshi Overtook Polymarket in Monthly Volume
In May, Kalshi provided $17.3 billion in volume, about 61% of the entire prediction market. Polymarket processed $8.4 billion in the same period. The gap became noticeable, especially considering that at the beginning of the year Polymarket was confidently leading in the crypto category.
According to Artemis, Kalshi began to pull ahead of Polymarket in several directions starting in February. In crypto contracts for the week ending May 17, Kalshi’s share reached 60.45%. At the beginning of the year, the situation was the opposite: Polymarket controlled 91.11% of this segment.
This turnaround shows that users have become more active in switching to the regulated American platform. For some traders, this may be a matter of trust, product availability, or a more familiar legal framework.
Kalshi’s Weekly Turnover Increased 75-Fold in a Year
Kalshi’s growth is especially noticeable at the platform-wide level. For the week ending May 17, it exceeded $4 billion in total notional volume for the first time. A year earlier, the figure was $54.5 million.
That’s a 7,424% increase. For the prediction market, such dynamics mean the segment is no longer a niche experiment. It is becoming part of broader event trading, involving not only crypto traders but also users working with macroeconomics, politics, sports, and market outcomes.
Polymarket processed about $2 billion in the same week. The platform remains one of the main players, but no longer looks like the sole center of liquidity. Competition has become real.
Kalshi Launched Bitcoin Futures With No Expiration Date
On June 3, Kalshi announced the launch of bitcoin futures with no expiration date. The company called the product the first such instrument on a regulated American platform.
Such futures have long been the foundation of trading on offshore crypto exchanges like Binance and Bybit. Their essence is that the trader gets constant exposure to the asset’s price without a fixed contract end date.
For Kalshi, this is an important expansion beyond classic event contracts. The platform is adding an instrument closer to traditional crypto trading, but operating in a CFTC-regulated environment. This could accelerate trader migration, especially if the market continues to seek alternatives to offshore platforms.
Polymarket Maintains Liquidity Depth
Despite Kalshi’s rapid growth, Polymarket remains strong in terms of capital within the platform. According to DefiLlama, Polymarket’s TVL is $535.58 million, open interest is $488.35 million, and the number of active addresses in 24 hours exceeds 108,000.
Polymarket’s total trading volume has reached $36.1 billion, including markets on Polygon and the OTC order book. This confirms that the platform maintains a significant user base and liquidity.
Revenues are also growing. In the past 30 days, Polymarket earned $20.94 million in revenue on $3.89 billion in trading volume. For the prediction market, this is an important indicator: the segment is already generating a noticeable economy, not just volume for the sake of growth.
New Players Enter the Prediction Market
Competition is not limited to Polymarket and Kalshi. Hyperliquid launched HIP-4 outcome contracts on the mainnet on May 2, allowing developers to create prediction markets on top of the exchange’s infrastructure.
This approach is different from Polymarket. Hyperliquid uses its own validators to calculate outcomes, not third-party oracles. The platform also plans to let external developers launch their own outcome pairs.
So far, HIP-4 remains a small player. According to Dune Analytics, volumes are about 1% of Polymarket’s, with about 500 active traders and 1 million processed trades. However, Hyperliquid has a strong base: the exchange already processes hundreds of billions of dollars in monthly perpetual futures volume.
The Sector Is Emerging From Its Niche
According to DefiLlama, the total TVL in the prediction market category reached $595.91 million. For a segment that was recently seen as experimental, this is a significant level.
The growth is explained not only by elections or political events. Prediction markets are becoming a way to trade any probabilities: asset prices, macro events, company decisions, regulatory outcomes, and sports results.
Against the backdrop of crypto volatility, this format is especially in demand. If the regular market wipes out leveraged positions, event contracts allow for a more precise expression of opinion. This does not make the risk lower, but it makes it more specific.
What’s Next?
The records set by Polymarket and Kalshi show that traders are increasingly moving from simple asset trading to scenario trading. On June 2, this transition coincided with the crypto market crash and $1.76 billion in liquidations.
Kalshi is strengthening its position through its regulated status and the launch of bitcoin futures with no expiration date. Polymarket retains large liquidity, high address activity, and growing revenue. Hyperliquid, in turn, is trying to integrate prediction markets into the infrastructure of a major derivatives platform.
The main takeaway is simple. Prediction markets are no longer just an additional tool for crypto traders. They are becoming a separate layer of probability trading, where liquidity, regulation, market launch speed, and trust in outcome calculation compete.
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